Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 40.52%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.