Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Mirandes had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.8%). The likeliest Mirandes win was 1-0 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.