Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Santander win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Santander win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.93%) and 2-1 (7.61%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (11.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing de Santander would win this match.