Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a East Kilbride win with a probability of 53.02%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 24.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a East Kilbride win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-2 (5.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.