Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartans win with a probability of 50.45%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartans win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.63%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 2-1 (6.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.