Stenhousemuir
Scottish League Cup | Group Stage
Jul 23, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Ochilview Park
Ayr United

Stenhousemuir
1 - 4
Ayr

Taylor (6')
Yates (54'), Banner (69')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Oakley (8'), Musonda (26'), Dowds (56'), Henderson (65')
Coverage of the Scottish League Cup Group Stage clash between Stenhousemuir and Ayr United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stenhousemuir

All competitions
Scottish League Cup
Last Game: Dundee Utd 3-0 Stenhousemuir
Tuesday, July 16 at 7.45pm in Scottish League Cup

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish League Cup
Last Game: Dundee Utd 2-1 Ayr
Saturday, July 20 at 5.15pm in Scottish League Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Stenhousemuir had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Stenhousemuir win was 1-0 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ayr United would win this match.

Result
StenhousemuirDrawAyr United
32.01% (3.53 3.53)26.97% (0.338 0.34)41.02% (-3.868 -3.87)
Both teams to score 50.3% (0.634 0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.18% (0.036000000000001 0.04)54.82% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.88% (0.029 0.03)76.12% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Stenhousemuir Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.24% (2.602 2.6)31.76% (-2.602 -2.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.81% (2.881 2.88)68.18% (-2.882 -2.88)
Ayr United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.71% (-1.956 -1.96)26.29% (1.955 1.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.58% (-2.691 -2.69)61.42% (2.69 2.69)
Score Analysis
    Stenhousemuir 32.01%
    Ayr United 41.02%
    Draw 26.96%
StenhousemuirDrawAyr United
1-0 @ 9.58% (0.644 0.64)
2-1 @ 7.34% (0.595 0.6)
2-0 @ 5.49% (0.721 0.72)
3-1 @ 2.81% (0.405 0.41)
3-0 @ 2.1% (0.401 0.4)
3-2 @ 1.87% (0.177 0.18)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 32.01%
1-1 @ 12.79% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 8.35% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.9% (0.136 0.14)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 26.96%
0-1 @ 11.15% (-0.66 -0.66)
1-2 @ 8.55% (-0.374 -0.37)
0-2 @ 7.45% (-0.899 -0.9)
1-3 @ 3.81% (-0.396 -0.4)
0-3 @ 3.32% (-0.615 -0.62)
2-3 @ 2.18% (-0.062 -0.06)
1-4 @ 1.27% (-0.214 -0.21)
0-4 @ 1.11% (-0.282 -0.28)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 41.02%

Head to Head
Jul 18, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
Ayr
1-0
Stenhousemuir
McKenzie (27')
Murdoch (43')
Jul 24, 2018 7.45pm
Group Stage
Ayr
5-0
Stenhousemuir
Shankland (2', 8', 46'), Moffat (41', 86')

Johnson (23'), Cook (56'), Garcia Tena (58')
Apr 16, 2016 3pm
Stenhousemuir
0-4
Ayr

Beith (58'), Meechan (62')
Donald (1'), Moore (47'), Preston (79' pen., 88')
Murphy (52'), Docherty (92')
Mar 8, 2016 7.45pm
Ayr
4-1
Stenhousemuir
Moore (65'), Malcolm (77' og.), Stevenson (84'), Trouten (92')
Devlin (5'), Adams (43')
McCormack (69')
Summers (21'), Cook (54'), Meechan (59'), Gilhaney (91'), McCormack (93')
Cook (73')
Oct 24, 2015 3pm
Stenhousemuir
0-1
Ayr

Murray (90')
Robertson (89')
Caldwell (9')