Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Livingston win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for Stenhousemuir had a probability of 24.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Livingston win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Stenhousemuir win was 2-1 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Livingston would win this match.