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[monks data]
Scotland national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Playoff Semi-Finals Route C
Oct 8, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Hampden Park
Israel national football team

Scotland
0 - 0
Israel


McGinn (58'), Fraser (105+2'), Paterson (120')
FT
(aet)

Natcho (13'), Bitton (56'), Weissman (88')
Scotland win 5-3 on penalties

Preview: Scotland vs. Israel - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro 2020 qualifying playoff between Scotland and Israel at Hampden Park, including team news and predicted lineups.

Scotland step up their bid to reach a first major tournament in 23 years on Thursday evening when they host Israel in a Euro 2020 qualifying playoff tie at Hampden Park.

The winners of the semi-final will take on either Norway or Serbia for a place in next year's rearranged finals to be staged across Europe - including some games in Glasgow.


Match preview

Scotland and Israel have got to know each other quite well over the past couple of years, having also met in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 UEFA Nations League tournaments.

In fact, they last met less than a month ago when playing out a 1-1 draw at an empty Hampden Park, with Eran Zahavi's impressive strike cancelling out Ryan Christie's penalty.

They will also face off in Netanya next month in the reverse fixture, but the Nations League is not what these two sides are focussed on right now.

This playoff semi-final was originally set to be played in March, and then June, only for the coronavirus pandemic to wreak havoc on the footballing calendar.

As well as playing out a draw with Israel in their first match back after a 10-month hiatus, Scotland also beat the Czech Republic's reserves 2-1 in Olomouc.

Scotland's Ryan Christie celebrates with teammates after scoring against Czech Republic on September 7, 2020© Reuters

The Czechs had to field an entirely new squad of players due to coronavirus restrictions and Scotland just about got the job done to top their Nations League group.

That victory makes it five games without defeat for Clarke's men since a run of five defeats on the spin, which ended their hopes of qualifying for Euro 2020 directly.

Israel are also having to do things the hard way, having finished fifth in their qualifying group. Like Scotland, they had a half-decent Nations League campaign to fall back on.

The Blue and Whites drew 1-1 with Slovakia in their most recent match four weeks ago and have now won just one of their last nine matches since June 2019.

As Israel showed at Hampden Park last month, though, they certainly cannot be taken lightly in this one-legged semi-final, particularly when the stakes are so high.

Scotland form (all competitions): LWWWDW

Israel form (all competitions): LWLLDD


Team News

Israel's Eran Zahavi celebrates scoring against Scotland on Septmeber 4, 2020© Reuters

Clarke defended his choice of formation after last month's fixtures and this week hinted that he will stick with a back three, allowing him to cram in Kieran Tierney and Andrew Robertson.

Liam Palmer started on the opposite flank to Robertson last time out but is now nursing a back injury, so Clarke may be tempted to tweak things rather than fitting square pegs into a round hole.

Lyndon Dykes and Christie led the line against Israel and Czech Republic in September and that is likely to be the case here, with Ryan Fraser also now back in contention out wide.

As for the visitors, they have been dealt a big blow as two of their starters from last month's game in Glasgow have been ruled out after testing positive for coronavirus.

Left-back Taleb Tawatha and central midfielder Dor Peretz will play no part, forcing Willibald Ruttensteiner to shuffle his pack.

Maccabi Tel Aviv's Mohammad Abu Fani, who made the news for comments made about Harry Kane earlier this month, and Dan Bitton have been called up for the first time.

Scotland possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Tierney, Cooper, McKenna, Robertson; McTominay, McGregor, McGinn; Fraser, Dykes, Christie

Israel possible starting lineup:
Marciano; Dasa, Bitton, Tibi, Elhamed, Glazer; Cohen, Natcho, Solomon; Zahavi, Dabbur


SM words green background

We say: Scotland 1-1 Israel (2-1 AET)

The sides have shared a win apiece and a draw in their three meetings over the past two campaigns, suggesting that this should be a very tight match.

Scotland may have home advantage but that counts for little these days, though we are still backing them to edge this one in a game that could go the distance.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data


ID:417450:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect7510:
Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 55.74%. A win for Israel had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.51%) and 1-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%).


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Data Failed

Who will win Thursday's Euro 2020 qualifying playoff between Scotland and Israel?

Scotland
0.0%
Israel
0.0%
0
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Scotland manager Steve Clarke pictured on September 4, 2020
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain870121
Q Scotland flag Scotland852117
3 Norway Norway832311
4 Georgia Georgia82248
5 Cyprus Cyprus80080

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q France France871022
Q Netherlands Netherlands860218
3 Greece Greece841313
4 Ireland Rep. Ireland82066
5 Gibraltar flag Gibraltar80080

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England862020
Q Italy Italy842214
3 Ukraine Ukraine842214
4 Macedonia N. Macedonia82248
5 Malta flag Malta80080

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Turkey Turkey852117
Q Croatia Croatia851216
3 Wales flag Wales833212
4 Armenia Armenia82248
5 Latvia Latvia81073

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Albania national flag Albania843115
Q Czech Republic Czech Republic843115
3 Poland Poland832311
4 Republic of Moldova Moldova824210
5 Faroe Islands Faroe Islands80262

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Belgium Belgium862020
Q Austria Austria861119
3 Sweden Sweden831410
4 Azerbaijan Azerbaijan82157
5 Estonia Estonia80171

Group G

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Hungary Hungary853018
Q Serbia Serbia842214
3 Montenegro Montenegro832311
4 Lithuania Lithuania81346
5 Bulgaria Bulgaria80444

Group H

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Denmark Denmark1071222
Q Slovenia Slovenia1071222
3 Finland Finland1060418
4 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan1060418
5 Northern Ireland flag N. Ireland103079
6 San Marino flag San Marino1000100

Group I

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania1064022
Q Switzerland Switzerland1045117
3 Israel Israel1043315
4 Belarus Belarus1033412
5 Kosovo flag Kosovo1025311
6 Andorra flag Andorra100282

Group J

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal10100030
Q Slovakia Slovakia1071222
3 Luxembourg flag Luxembourg1052317
4 Iceland Iceland1031610
5 Bosnia Bosnia H'vina103079
6 Liechtenstein flag Liechtenstein1000100


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