Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Al-Taawoun had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Al-Taawoun win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.