San Jose Earthquakes will kick off their Major League Soccer campaign off with a tricky test at home to New York Red Bulls on Saturday.
The hosts were unable to make the Western Conference playoffs last season, while the visitors failed to progress past the first round of the Eastern Conference knockouts.
Match preview
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Having watched their city rivals in New York City FC lift the MLS Cup last season, the Red Bulls will return to action looking to regain their crown as the Big Apple's top dog.
A remarkable run in the second half of the campaign saw the Red Bulls sneak into the playoffs, but they were unable to get past eventual semi-finalists Philadelphia Union.
Winners of three Supporters' Shields between 2013 and 2018, the recent Red Bulls form has represented a stark fall from grace.
After regularly competing at the top end of the division, the hope is that the Red Bulls will once again be able to compete at the top of the Eastern Conference this season.
By contrast, a playoff berth was something that the Earthquakes could only dream of last time out, having finished 10th in the Western Conference table.
Completing the campaign a disappointing seven points off the top seven spaces, bridging the gap to the playoffs will be the side from California's primary focus.
However, a season opener against the Red Bulls is not something that the Earthquakes will be relishing, having lost the last three meetings between the pair.
Granted, the two have not played each other since March 2019, suggesting a turn in form could be on the cards for the Earthquakes this weekend.
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In a busy off-season for the Red Bulls, the club from New York will begin the campaign without former club captain Sean Davis, who left for Nashville SC.
Elsewhere, Andrew Gutman and Fabio have both returned to their parent clubs after season-long loans with the Red Bulls.
However, there have been plenty of players coming through the front door, with Luquinhas joining Patryk Klimala as one of the Red Bull's designated players.
For the Earthquakes, they have enjoyed somewhat of a transition over the summer, with Jacob Akanyirige, Chris Wondolowski and Daniel Vega having all retired since the end of last season.
Also busy in the transfer market, the Earthquakes splashed the cash on Jamiro Monteiro, who joined the club from the Union for $250,000.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Thompson, Nathan, Beason, Lopez; Judson, Yueill; Espinoza, Monteiro, Cowell; Ebobisse
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Edwards, S. Nealis, Long, Tolkin; Yearwood, Casseres Jr; Fernandez, Luquinhas, Morgan; Klimala
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 New York Red Bulls
A difficult proposition awaits the Earthquakes, who will not be overjoyed to kick the season off against a hungry Red Bulls side.
The head-to-head record points towards the Eastern Conference side for this one, but a score draw remains the most likely outcome.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
