San Jose Earthquakes take on Houston Dynamo in the MLS Western Conference on Saturday, with both sides needing to win to keep themselves within touching distance of the playoff positions.
The Earthquakes are currently five points adrift of Minnesota United in seventh position, while Houston are three points ahead of their forthcoming opponents and therefore able to move into the playoff places with a victory.
Match preview
© Reuters
The Earthquakes, who were involved in the first ever MLS game in history when beating DC United 1-0 in 1994, have struggled to rediscover their successful early years, only reaching the playoffs twice in the last eight seasons.
However, Matias Almeyda did narrowly guide them there again last season, albeit crashing out in the first round, as was also the case before his time at the club in 2017.
The Earthquakes famously won the MLS Cup in 2001 and 2003, and they also reached the quarter-finals in 2005 and 2012 after ranking first overall in the MLS league season.
Those days feel an awfully long time ago for Quakes fans now, with a winless league run of 10 games heading into Saturday's test against Houston hardly boosting their hopes of them returning any time soon.
Almeyda's side were dreadfully unlucky not to see that run come to an end last time out, however, with Nathan Cardoso's second-half strike looking like providing them with a crucial victory before Daniel Salloi's injury-time equaliser for Sporting Kansas City broke San Jose hearts.
© Reuters
Houston are in a very similar boat to the Earthquakes in truth, having only reached the playoffs once in the last seven years, when they reached the semi-finals in 2017.
Like their upcoming opponents, Houston have also won the MLS Cup, magnificently lifting it in their first ever seasons in the MLS in 2006 and 2007.
After finishing as runners-up in 2011 and 2012, Orange Crush have failed to live up to those heights ever since.
Former USA international Tab Ramos, who was brought in as head coach in October 2019, has not had a dramatic impact on the team's performances, but they are at least in the mix this time around.
However, a winless run of seven league games heading into Saturday's trip to San Jose has stalled their progress somewhat, with something surely having to give between two out of form sides on Saturday.
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Earthquakes are likely to remain without Matt Bersano and Carlos Fierro due to knee and thigh injuries respectively.
Jackson Yueill is also unavailable for his club due to being on international duty with the United States, who are competing in the Gold Cup, while Judson is suspended after seeing red following Kansas' late equaliser on Wednesday.
Houston appear to have a full squad at their disposal, with no known injuries or suspensions.
Ethan Bartlow, who suffered from concussion in April, finally returned to a matchday squad for the weekend's defeat to Seattle, but is unlikely to be involved from the start on Saturday.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Salinas, Nathan, Alanis, Beason, M.Lopez; Espinoza, Remedi, E.Lopez, Cowell; Kikanovic
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Valentin, Parker, Junqua, Lundqvist; Corona, Jones, Vera; Picault, Urruti, Rodriguez
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Houston Dynamo
The Earthquakes have drawn four of their last six, with five of Houston's last six matches ending as stalemates, too, so it is hard to envisage anything other than a share of the spoils on Saturday.
Both sides' confidence are low, with their winless runs combining for a total of 16 games, and we believe that could continue beyond the weekend.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 23.65% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
