The San Jose Earthquakes will go for their first win of the Major League Soccer season this weekend when they take on Dallas at PayPal Park on Saturday.
The Quakes began the season by losing 2-1 to the Houston Dynamo while Dallas played to a 0-0 draw in their opener versus the Colorado Rapids.
Match preview
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San Jose reached the post-season in 2020 for the first time in three years, losing a heartbreaking penalty shootout to Sporting Kansas City.
Heading into year three at the helm, manager Matias Almeyda has transformed this team into a highly entertaining one to watch with mixed results.
You can expect to see plenty of goals when the Earthquakes hit the field, as this team only had three 0-0 draws in the 2020 regular season.
The downside is that the defence is often left hanging out to dry, as evidenced by the fact this team gave up a league-high 51 goals last year.
They did not play Dallas in 2020, but they have fared well against them in recent history, having not lost to the Toros in the regular season since 2016.
Dallas were a very different team on the road last year, winning only once - two fewer victories than they had in their previous season.
In a conference filled with teams who score a lot, Luchi Gonzalez's side were among the worst in that department last year, scoring only 28 times, the third-fewest in the Western Conference.
This squad has always been able to compete with the other MLS teams, but they lack a difference-maker who can turn a match in their favour and earn them three points.
A year ago, Dallas had the second most draws in MLS with six, and that was in a shortened campaign where they played only 23 games in the regular season.
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Team News
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Earthquakes striker Andy Rios played only half an hour in their defeat at Houston last weekend and could start on the bench again with a lower leg injury, while winger Shea Salinas needs two more assists to hit 50 for his career with the Quakes.
Not far behind him in that department is striker Chris Wondolowski, who holds the club record for most goals (162) and is fourth in the all-time assists list with 40.
Dallas will be without Jesus Ferreira, who has a shoulder injury, while Thomas Roberts is out with a lower leg problem.
They will be counting on midfielder Andres Ricaurte to become more of a provider following the departure of Michael Barrios.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Lopez, Alanis, Jungwirth, Albecasis; Yueill, Remedi, Fierro, Salinas, Espinoza; Cowell
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Bressan, Hedges, Martinez; Hollingshead, Ricaurte, Acosta, Nelson, Obrian, Vargas; Jara
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Dallas
There are two common themes to note when these teams face each other; there are usually plenty of goals scored, and more often than not, the final result is a draw. Since 2016 only two of the regular season matches between these sides did not end in a tie, and these teams have only played to two goalless draws in that span.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 51.57%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 25.44% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Dallas win was 1-2 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
