Two of Serie A's sleeping giants go head-to-head when Sampdoria host Fiorentina on Sunday.
Having regularly competed in Europe not so long ago, both clubs have found themselves slipping down the table in recent years, although Sampdoria have at least climbed into the top half in recent weeks.
Match preview
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Indeed, Sampdoria returned from the winter break with increased vigour, winning three of their five matches before stumbling to Juventus and drawing 1-1 at Benevento last Sunday.
As has often proved to be the case for many teams this season, Filipo Inzaghi's newcomers proved a tough nut to crack for Claudio Ranieri's side, with the visitors dominating possession without managing to score in an entertaining first half.
Gianluca Caprari struck improbably from a tight angle to open the scoring for Inzaghi's side after the break, with Emil Audero denying the forward doubling the minnows' lead.
That stop proved crucial when the lively Keita Balde equalised with ten minutes remaining after fine wing play by Mikkel Damsgaard laid the ball on a plate for the forward to salvage a point. Ranieri will be hoping for a similarly busy display from the Senegal international on Sunday.
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After a disappointing start to the current campaign, Fiorentina turned to former manager Cesare Prandelli in Novenber in an attempt to arrest the slide at a club he had huge success with between 2005 and 2010 before departing for the Italian national team job.
However, the 63-year-old has not had the impact he would have had desired, winning only four and losing seven of his 16 matches in charge so far. The latest of those defeats was not unexpected, though, in a 2-0 loss to Antonio Conte's Inter Milan side last Friday.
The title contenders proved too classy for Prandelli's side on the day, with Nicolo Barella's superbly-curled effort from 25 yards giving Inter the lead after the half-hour mark before Ivan Perisic tapped home after the break to take the game away from the hosts.
However, Viola had their chances, smashing the bar before forcing a superb reflex save from Samir Handanovic with the game still finely poised at 0-1, so if Prandelli's side can repeat their level of performance on Sunday there is every chance they will gain a positive result as they look to move up from 15th in the table.
Sampdoria Serie A form: WLWWLD
Fiorentina Serie A form: LWLWDL
Fiorentina form (all competitions): WLLWDL
Team News
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Sampdoria will be without the suspended Lorenzo Tonelli after the defender picked up his 10th yellow card in only his 15th league appearance of the season against Benevento.
Former Southampton forward Manolo Gabbiadini is doubtful due to an abdominal injury.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have their own suspended players in Nikola Milenkovic, who was sent off for violent conduct against Torino, and Sofyan Amrabat, who received his fifth yellow card of the season against Inter.
Martin Caceres will continue to miss out due to a muscle injury.
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Silva, Candreva, Jankto, Thorsby; Quagliarella, Balde
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Venuti, Martinez, Pezzella, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventure, Castrovilli, Valero, Eysseric; Vlahovic
We say: Sampdoria 2-1 Fiorentina
Sampdoria have been pretty strong at home in the early stages of 2021, so we can see them gaining a narrow victory to cement their position in the top half.
Fiorentina lack adventure under Prandelli, so it may require a more attacking system implemented by the 63-year-old for a positive result.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sampdoria would win this match.
