Cagliari play host to Sampdoria on Sunday looking to end their seven-match winless streak in Serie A.
While Sampdoria sit five places above their hosts in the standings, there are only three points between the two struggling teams.
Match preview
© Reuters
After just three games of the season, Walter Marrazzi was appointed as the new manager of Cagliari, tasked with the job of moving the club away from the relegation zone.
Gli Isolani remain without a victory to their name with further defeats coming at the hands of Empoli and Napoli.
There was further disappointment when Cagliari conceded a last-minute equaliser at home to Venezia before the international break, a goal which prevented them from moving off the bottom of the table.
Nevertheless, performance levels, particularly in defence, have improved since Mazzarri's arrival and they will be confident of building on that against Sampdoria.
Keita Balde has arguably been the star performer under Mazzarri, however, with the Senegalese netting twice in four appearances.
As far as Sampdoria are concerned, the goals have flowed at both ends of the pitch since they returned after the September international break.
That assessment was strengthened on October 3 when Sampdoria drew 3-3 with Udinese, both teams holding an advantage before the visitors netted a late leveller.
With I Blucerchiati still just two points adrift of the drop zone, Roberto D'Aversa will not be entirely satisfied with his side's current standing in the table.
However, there were enough positives from the performances against Juventus and Udinese to suggest that they could move closer to the mid-table positions over the coming weeks.
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Luca Ceppitelli is expected to take the place of Cagliari teammate Diego Godin, who has spent the international break representing Uruguay.
Dalbert is also in line to make his return at left wing-back, taking the spot of Charalampos Lykogiannis.
Mikkel Damsgaard sustained a thigh injury while representing Denmark, leaving the playmaker as a major doubt for this contest.
D'Aversa has a number of alternatives at his disposal, but Nicola Murru could be used further forward than his more familiar left-back role.
While the remainder of the Sampdoria XI could stay the same, Bartosz Bereszynski and Morten Thorsby are both one yellow card away from a ban.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Caceres, Ceppitelli, Carboni; Nandez, Marin, Strootman, Deiola, Dalbert; Pedro, Balde
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Candreva, Thorsby, Ekdal, Murru; Gabbiadini, Quagliarella
We say: Cagliari 1-1 Sampdoria
With things extremely tight at the bottom end of the table, we do not expect anything different to occur between these two sides. It feels like a matchup where both teams will focus on avoiding defeat, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 30.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
