At opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of Serie A form, rock-bottom Salernitana and improving Sassuolo meet at Stadio Arechi on Sunday.
While the visitors have won three games on the spin to move inside the top half, their hosts are 10 points adrift of safety after a seven-match winless streak.
Match preview
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Since a sticky patch at the start of February, Sassuolo have recovered impressively from conceding a late equaliser to Roma, by going on to win each of their next three league fixtures - the Emilian side's best run since last April.
Indeed, only four teams have collected more Serie A points than the Neroverdi's 15 since the start of 2022, and their latest victory featured some familiar names on the scoresheet.
Alessio Dionisi's attack-minded outfit are one of only three teams this season in which at least four players have attempted more than 40 shots at goal, and three of those men - Italy internationals Domenico Berardi, Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca - found the net in last week's 4-1 win over Venezia.
Though their interest in the Coppa Italia was recently ended by Juventus at the quarter-final stage, victories over reigning champions Inter at San Siro and at home to Fiorentina have delighted Sassuolo's supporters, and they now sit 10th in the Serie A standings - five points clear of the bottom half.
Replicating last term's eighth-placed finish is now surely within Dionisi's sights, but achieving European qualification appears to be beyond him in his first year at the club.
Nonetheless, the Neroverdi faithful will expect their team to extend their winning streak on Saturday, as they look to do the double over lowly opposition, following a 1-0 victory in September's reverse fixture, when Berardi was the only scorer.
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Already struggling at that early stage of their comeback campaign, Salernitana have since gone on to concede a total of 61 goals in Serie A this season, with five coming in last week's thumping by Inter.
Prior to this season, only 10 teams in history had conceded more than 60 goals after 26 games of a campaign in Italy's top flight - Crotone being the most recent, just last year. Eight of those clubs have ultimately been relegated by the end of the season, so the odds are certainly stacked against Davide Nicola's side staying up.
Despite some improved performances since the proven Serie A survival specialist took charge last month, Salernitana have failed to win in their last nine Serie A home games; drawing each of the last three.
That represents the Campanian club's longest streak of home games without winning at the elite level, and also their most extensive run of successive home draws.
In all, the Granata have accrued only eight points in Salerno so far - the division's worst record - and may welcome Sassuolo to the Arechi more in fear of the damage their visitors' attack could inflict than in hope of earning a fourth league win of the season.
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Team News
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Davide Nicola could be faced with a defensive dilemma on Saturday afternoon, as both full-backs who started the 5-0 defeat to Inter have been unable to train in recent days: Pasquale Mazzocchi suffered a sprained ankle in training, while Luca Ranieri has picked up a muscular injury.
Franck Ribery and Andrea Schiavone are Salernitana's other major doubts, but Matteo Ruggeri is available to replace Ranieri if required, with Joel Obi and Ivan Radovanovic pushing for starts in midfield.
For Sassuolo, meanwhile, Filip Djuricic is again expected to miss out, but midfield mainstay Maxime Lopez returns from suspension and should replace Henrique as part of the central pair in a familiar 4-2-3-1 formation.
The visitors may be otherwise unchanged from the XI that started in Venice last week, with captain Domenico Berardi featuring in a particularly potent front three.
The Italy forward has been directly involved in 23 Serie A goals in Serie A this season (12 scored and 11 assists), and across the top five European leagues, only four men have managed more.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Dragusin, Fazio, Ruggeri; L. Coulibaly, Ederson; Kastanos, Bonazzoli, Verdi; Djuric
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Muldur, Chiriches, Ferrari, Kyriakopoulos; Lopez, Frattesi; Berardi, Raspadori, Traore; Scamacca
We say: Salernitana 1-3 Sassuolo
Though they have tightened up at the back under new management - an expected mauling by Inter aside - Salernitana are the league's lowest scorers and have found the net just 10 times on home soil this term.
Therefore, their lack of attacking threat should allow Sassuolo to get forward at will; unleashing their fantastic foursome to secure a fourth win on the spin.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 55.52%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 23.73% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.05%) and 1-3 (6.72%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 2-1 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
