The weekend's Ligue 1 action gets underway with a relegation six-pointer as Saint-Etienne welcome Troyes to the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on Friday evening.
The two sides are perhaps the pair in the best form out of the bottom teams, with the hosts having clawed themselves out of the bottom two in recent weeks and the visitors having moved up to 15th.
Match preview
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Saint-Etienne continued their strong run of form with a solid result away at Lyon last weekend.
Whilst Lyon have not been displaying the form of their 2020-21 season, a trip the Groupama Stadium is rarely an easy fixture and Pascal Dupraz will likely have been pleased to have seen his side come away with a point after a goalless draw.
That result may have seen his side slip back down to 18th - and thus the relegation playoff spot - but four wins, two draws and just one loss from their last seven games has been a huge improvement.
Having picked up just two wins under Claude Puel in the first half of the season, Les Verts have already managed four during their Dupraz revival in 2022 and will be confident heading into a game against a fellow struggler.
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Troyes may be a fellow struggler but they are also in good form and made it back-to-back victories when they hosted Nantes last weekend.
Despite an important 2-0 win away at Bordeaux, ESTAC supporters will have been wary of the visiting Canaries - one of the league's form sides having won five of their last six matches, including a shock victory over Paris Saint-Germain.
Bruno Irles's side defended resolutely, though, and actually boasted more shots despite having just 44% of the possession, with one of those shots finding the net, courtesy of Ike Ugbo.
The London-born Canadian international's goal would prove to be the difference between the sides at the final whistle and the three points moved Troyes above fellow Ligue 1 newcomers Clermont and further away from danger.
They can now even aim for 14th, having moved to within one point of Angers - who have lost their last seven consecutive games - but will be aware that a defeat this weekend could change the outlook of the bottom seven dramatically once again.
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Team News
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Saint-Etienne still have a fair few injury problems to deal with - Saidou Sow (knee), Enzo Crivelli (groin) and Yvann Macon (knee) all remain out.
There are also now doubts over Romain Hamouma with a wrist injury and Yvan Neyou with a muscle problem.
Dupraz should be able to stick with his preferred 3-5-2 formation, though, with his backline having impressively kept out Lyon last time out.
ESTAC left-back Youssouf Kone will be available after serving his suspension but may not break immediately into the starting XI, having picked up a red within 15 minutes of taking to the pitch against Bordeaux.
Irles will hope that Adil Rami can make a late recovery but the veteran centre-back remains an injury doubt.
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Bernardoni; Nade, Mangala, Sacko; Thioub, Boudebouz, Gourna-Douath, Camara, Kolodziejczak; Nordin, Bouanga
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Conte, Palmer-Brown, Salmier; Kabore, Kouame, Tardieu, Larouci; Mothiba, Chavalerin; Ugbo
We say: Saint-Etienne 2-1 Troyes
Troyes come into the match with the momentum of two consecutive wins, but they will come up against one of the most motivated, stubborn sides in the league right now. Dupraz's men just keep finding a way and we are backing them to snatch another important three points in their fight for survival.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 46.27%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
