Mali will look to maintain their position at the summit of their World Cup 2022 Qualifying group on Thursday, when they take on strugglers Rwanda away from home.
The hosts have collected just one point from their four outings, while their visitors sit atop the group with 10 points, having not fallen to a defeat so far.
Match preview
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Rwanda were forced to fight for their place in qualifying for next year's World Cup, but they cruised through the first round with a dominant 10-0 aggregate victory over Seychelles.
However, their hopes of reaching the tournament for the first time have now withered away after a difficult group campaign, with Vincent Mashami's men collecting just a single point so far.
They began with a trip to Mali in September and left with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Thursday's opponents as Adama Traore hit the only goal of the game in the 19th minute.
While they bounced back with a commendable 1-1 draw against Kenya, the Amavubi now head into Thursday on the back of consecutive defeats to Uganda, putting top spot, and the resultant progression in qualification, out of reach with two games left to play.
Mashami's side meet a Mali outfit with plenty to play for heading into the final two games, as they look to keep hold of top spot and earn progression into the next round.
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Following the opening victory over Rwanda, Les Aigles played out a goalless draw with Uganda in the second match, before recording back-to-back wins in the last two outings.
They began the latest round of fixtures with a 5-0 thrashing of Kenya, thanks to a first-half hat-trick from Ibrahima Kone and goals from Adama Traore and Moussa Doumbia.
Mohamed Magassouba's men made it consecutive wins in the reverse fixture, as another Kone goal saw them leave Kenya with a hard-fought 1-0 victory.
With only one side from each group progressing to the next stage of qualification, Mali's position is not entirely secure, with Uganda just two points behind, and they will be keen to post a victory on Thursday before taking on the second-placed nation in a potentially decisive clash on the final day.
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Team News
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Rwanda have announced a large squad for the final two qualifying games, with no injury concerns for Mashami to contend with.
The line will likely be led by Jacques Tuyisenge, who ranks joint-second in the nation's all-time scoring charts with 15 goals.
Midfielder Haruna Niyonzima boasts the most experience in the squad, having turned out over 100 times for his country.
Mali boast a star-studded squad heading into the final round of fixtures, and Magassouba will likely make limited changes from their double over Kenya in October.
Forward Adama Traore has shone for his national team and Champions League surprise package Sheriff Tiraspol, and he should again feature with Southampton attacker Moussa Djenepo on the other flank, while Ibrahima Kone will again lead the line after hitting four goals in the last two wins.
RB Leipzig midfielder Amadou Haidara is another star in the squad, and he could line up alongside the likes of Mohamed Camara of Red Bull Salzburg and Lens' Cheick Doucoure.
Rwanda possible starting lineup:
Mvuyekure; Rutanga, Niyigena, Bayisenge, Imanishimwe; Bizimana, Ngwabije; Muhire, Niyonzima, Hakizimana; Tuyisenge
Mali possible starting lineup:
Mounkoro; Fofana, Sissako, Sacko, H Traore; Doucoure, Haidara, Camara; A Traore, Kone, Djenepo
We say: Rwanda 0-3 Mali
Given the form and quality of the two sides, we struggle to see anything other than a relatively routine victory for the visitors on Thursday.
Mali have been impressive at both ends of the pitch in qualifying, having scored seven goals and kept four clean sheets, and, with the added incentive of keeping top spot, they should have enough to cruise past Rwanda.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Rwanda had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Rwanda win was 1-0 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
