Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ural Yekaterinburg would win this match.