Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 66.74%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 13.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.