Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 49.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 22.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.