Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 68.08%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.74%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (4.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.