Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 58.08%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.88%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Krylia Sovetov win it was 1-0 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.