Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 27.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.