Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 70.14%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 12.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Spartak Moscow win it was 1-2 (3.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.