Russia and Slovenia square off on Saturday afternoon with the opportunity to record successive wins in Group H.
While Russia made hard work of their opening fixture against Malta, Slovenia posted a surprise 1-0 win over 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite the 5-0 reverse in Serbia back in November, Stanislav Cherchesov would have had few concerns ahead of opening their campaign with a game against Malta.
However, it took until the 89th minute for Russia to seal all three points against the minnows of the group, a result which will not necessarily lift the mood in the camp ahead of welcoming Slovenia to Sochi.
On a positive note, Russia ended a six-match winless streak which had lasted since September 6, and Croatia's defeat earlier this week has given Cherchesov's squad an opportunity to establish a lead in the group.
Alexander Sobolev came off the substitutes' bench to net his second international goal against Malta, building on the 10 strikes in 16 league games for Spartak Moscow this season.
© Reuters
Having been provided with an easier UEFA Nations League group, Slovenia went through the closing months of 2020 putting together an eight-match unbeaten run.
Nevertheless, their success over Croatia was unexpected, particularly being able to hold on for 75 minutes after Sandi Lovric's early goal in Ljubljana.
Aware that defeat at the weekend could leave his side down in mid-table, Matjaz Kek will not get too carried away at this stage as he looks to guide Slovenia to their first World Cup since 2010.
However, the result against the group's top seeds made a statement with eight clean sheets having now been recorded in their last nine fixtures.
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Despite the short turnaround after a difficult fixture, Kek could opt against making any alterations to his Slovenia XI.
Amedej Vetrih is an option in midfield if the head coach wants to introduce fresh legs, while Domen Crnigoj may be introduced on one of the flanks.
Midfielder Aleksei Miranchuk is in line to return to the Russia side, taking the place of Daniil Fomin.
Barring any late fitness issues, the remainder of the side could stay the same, leaving Sobolev to accept a spot among the replacements.
Russia possible starting lineup:
Shunin; Fernandes, Semenov, Dzhikiya, Karavaev; Akhmetov, Miranchuk; Kuzyaev, Golovin, Ionov; Dyzuba
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Stojanovic, Blazic, Mevlja, Balkovec; Vetrih, Kurtic, Lovric; Ilicic, Sporar, Bohar
We say: Russia 2-0 Slovenia
On the back of defeating Croatia, Slovenia will be full of confidence ahead of their visit to Sochi. Nevertheless, it may be difficult to replicate their performance from Wednesday evening, leading us to predict a comfortable triumph for the home side.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 55.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
