Rot-Weiss Essen take on Holstein Kiel in the DFB-Pokal quarter-final on Wednesday, with both sides hugely excited by the prospect of progressing to a cup semi-final.

Both clubs have already caused huge upsets in this year's competition, with RWE beating Bayer Leverkusen and Holstein Kiel overcoming Bayern Munich.

Match preview

Holstein Kiel's Janni Serra celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in February 2021 © Reuters

RWE actually lifted the DFB-Pokal in 1953, following that up by winning the German top tier in 1955 to qualify for the first ever rendition of the European Cup the following season, losing to Scottish side Hibernian in the first knockout round.

However, the Ruhr-based side have not competed in the Bundesliga since being relegated in 1977, and have been languishing in the fourth and fifth tiers of German football since 2008.

Christian Neidhart's side look to have a good chance of returning to the third tier, though, given that they currently occupy second place behind Borussia Dortmund's reserve team in the Regionalliga West.

The real excitement of RWE's season, though, has been in the DFB-Pokal. Having beaten Arminia Bielefeld, Fortuna Dusseldorf and Leverkusen on their way to the quarter-final, there is little doubt that the magic of the cup appears be on their side and they will have every confidence of beating Holstein Kiel on Wednesday.

RWE will not find it easy against their forthcoming opponents, though, with the visitors enjoying one of their finest ever seasons.

Holstein Kiel did win the German Championship in 1912, but unlike RWE, they have never competed in the Bundesliga.

Ole Werner looks to have every chance of ending that barren run, however, with his side currently second to VfL Bochum on goal difference in the second tier of German football.

Should Werner guide his side to their first ever cup semi-final, alongside gaining promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in the modern era, the 32-year-old would clearly be considered a permanent club legend. While RWE have shown how dangerous they can be against Bundesliga opponents, Werner could not have wished for a better chance of doing so.

Rot-Weiss Essen DFB-Pokal form: WWW
Rot-Weiss Essen form (all competitions): WWDWWL

Holstein Kiel DFB-Pokal form: WWW
Holstein Kiel form (all competitions): WWWWLW

Team News

Holstein Kiel coach Ole Werner pictured in February 2021 © Reuters

RWE look set to be without Sandro Plechaty and David Sauerland due to injury, while Amara Conde and Oguzhan Kefkir will also miss out due to COVID-19.

Top goalscorer Simon Engelmann will be determined to continue his phenomenal run in the cup, having scored in each of the previous three rounds so far.

Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, are likely to travel to Essen without Johannes van den Bergh and Noah Awuku due to injury.

Their hopes will largely hinge on the performance of Fin Bartels, with the 34-year-old enjoying a brilliant season since joining from Werder Bremen.

Rot-Weiss Essen possible starting lineup:
Davari; Hildebrandt, Heber, Hahn, Herzenbruch, Grund; Backszat, Grote, Kehl-Gomez; Young, Engelmann

Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Gelios; Dehm, Lorenz, Wahl, Kirkeskov; Bartels, Lee, Meffert, Bieler, Reese; Serra

SM words green background

We say: Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 Holstein Kiel

We can envisage a close encounter between these two non-Bundesliga sides, with plenty of nerves likely to be on display given the amount at stake.

There does feel something a little magical surrounding RWE in this competition this year, with Engelmann likely to get on the scoresheet once again, so we will back them to win after a penalty shoot-out.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 70.14%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Rot-Weiss Essen had a probability of 12.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.95%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.37%), while for a Rot-Weiss Essen win it was 1-0 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.