Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 25.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest NK Istra 1961 win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for NK Varazdin in this match.