The dawn of a new Brasileiro campaign brings with it another Paulista Derby, with Palmeiras welcoming Sao Paulo-based archrivals Corinthians to Allianz Parque on Saturday.
Both sides have endured challenging starts to the season and this test will likely go a long way in identifying which side is really in the market for honours.
Match preview
© Reuters
With just two games played so far in the league this season, Palmeiras currently sit seventh in the standings with three points to their name.
Following their opening day 1-0 defeat to Flamengo, Verdao managed to beat Chapecoense 3-1 at Allianz Parque, with Wesley and Luiz Adriano both netting goals on the day.
Verdao boss Abel Ferreira will certainly hope that that win could be a turning point in the campaign and offer a chance for the club to move up the table.
However, Palmeiras will not be moving anywhere this weekend if they cannot find a way past the old enemy, Corinthians.
© Reuters
Corinthians begin this season looking to put the inadequacies of last season behind them and get back to their best.
Finishing 12th last season in a disappointing campaign, Corinthians have their work cut out for them this time around.
Much like their rivals Verdao, Corinthians lost their opening game against Atletico Goianiense but managed to narrowly beat America-MG 1-0 in the second fixture of the campaign.
Fabio Santos Romeu's penalty in the 29th minute sealed the win for Timao, but the strike also serves as a reminder that Vagner Mancini's men have yet to score from open play in the league this season.
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Palmeiras's Danilo Barbosa, Danilo, Gabriel Veron and Benjamin Kuscevic are not expected to start due to injury.
Verdao's venomous front three of Rony, Adriano and Wesley are all set to lead the line for Palmeiras this weekend.
Mancini will be without the likes of Jemerson, Gustavo Mantuan, Danilo Avelar and Ruan Oliveira, who are all out with injuries.
Mancini may be tempted to field a more attacking starting 11 in order to create more in front of goal.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Jailson; Mayke, Luan, Renan, Luis; Veiga, De Paula, Scarpa; Rony, Adriano, Wesley
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Fagner, Victor, Gil, Fabio Santos; Mosquito, De Moura, Cantillo, Gabriel, Araos; Luan
We say: Palmeiras 2-2 Corinthians
We expect the Paulista Derby to end in a stalemate, but that is not to say there will not be a few fireworks along the way. This is definitely a fixture to keep an eye on.
Top tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Corinthians had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Corinthians win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
