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[monks data]
Porto
Europa League | Qualifying Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Dragão
Lazio logo

Porto
2 - 1
Lazio

Martinez (37', 49')
Grujic (4'), Vieira (45+1'), Galeno (72'), Evanilson (73')
FT(HT: 1-1)

Preview: Porto vs. Lazio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Porto and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Contesting a place in the Europa League last 16, Primeira Liga leaders Porto and Serie A side Lazio meet in the competition's playoff round on Thursday.

The teams convene at Estadio do Dragao for the first leg, after the hosts dropped down from the Champions League and their visitors came through the group phase as runners-up.


Match preview

Porto coach Sergio Conceicao on December 7, 2021© Reuters

Though they have dominated domestically this season, after missing out on the title last year, Porto failed to make it five consecutive qualifications from the Champions League group stage in December - ending up with just five points in a challenging Group B.

Even so, the Dragons were still in a strong position to finish second behind runaway leaders Liverpool going into their final fixture, but a 3-1 reverse at home to Atletico Madrid ultimately saw the Spanish champions go through at their expense.

Nevertheless, the Portuguese club return to a competition in which they enjoy a rich history, having also won its direct predecessor, the UEFA Cup, during the golden era of Jose Mourinho's reign. In fact, Porto actually beat Lazio in the semis of their victorious campaign of 2003; winning 4-1 in the home leg before a goalless draw in Rome sealed safe passage to the final, where they went on to beat a talented Celtic side.

Of course, they then lifted Europe's top title the following year, but while such success has eluded them since, current coach Sergio Conceicao will oversee the club's sixth participation in the Europa League's knockout phase.

Competition winners in their debut campaign, under Andre Villas-Boas 11 years ago, Porto have lost three of their last-32 ties since, but can approach Thursday's contest full of confidence due to some stunning league form.

A dramatic 2-2 draw with title rivals Sporting at the weekend keeps them six points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga table, having previously won 11 games on the bounce - scoring 31 times and keeping five clean sheets since their European defeat to Atleti.

Now in charge of another of his former sides, ex-Lazio star Conceicao played a part in the Rome club's most successful spell of recent times; following up Cup Winners' Cup victory in 1999 by clinching the domestic double the following season.

Now, two decades on, he takes on the current Biancocelesti with a squad containing son Francisco Conceicao under his command, and will be plotting his former employer's downfall.

Lazio's Ciro Immobile celebrates scoring their first goal on January 9, 2022© Reuters

After finishing sixth in Serie A last season, led by former coach Simone Inzaghi, Lazio returned to the Europa League for a record-equalling ninth appearance in the group stage, now under the distinctive management of Maurizio Sarri.

Though they lost their first Group E fixture at Galatasaray, the Aquile completed the remainder of the campaign unbeaten - with a goalless draw at home to the Turkish team on the final matchday seeing Sarri's side finish second; consigning them to this month's playoffs.

Returning for their 77th match in the Europa League proper - only Villarreal, with 88, have featured in more - the Biancocelesti are competing in the knockout phase for the seventh time. However, they were eliminated in three of the previous six campaigns at this equivalent point in the tournament.

Much like in the Italian top flight, Lazio have proved less effective away from home in continental competition of late, and victory at Lokomotiv Moscow in their penultimate group stage fixture finally ended an 11-game winless run on the road in Europe.

Lazio have certainly struggled for consistency this term, but a crushing Coppa Italia defeat to Milan aside, they have been a more resilient proposition in recent weeks - winning three of their last league games without conceding a single goal. Given their newfound defensive solidity, they will hope this latest iteration of 'Sarriball' can carry them past Porto and into the last-16 draw.

Porto form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Lazio Europa League form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Lazio form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Porto's Wendell reacts after being shown a red card by referee Clement Turpin on December 7, 2021© Reuters

The lineup for Porto's return to European action will inevitably be a little different from that which took to the field against Atletico two months ago.

Galeno - a January signing from Braga, who was the Europa League's joint-top scorer in the autumn with six goals - and Ruben Semedo (on loan from Olympiacos) have both since joined the club due to the departures of a trio of mainstays: Jesus Corona (Sevilla), Luis Diaz (Liverpool), and Sergio Oliveira - now on loan at Lazio's city rivals Roma.

Meanwhile, both Agustin Marchesin - dismissed again at the weekend - and Wendell must serve suspensions having been sent off from the bench during their fractious Champions League exit.

In-form striker Evanilson has scored seven goals in his last eight games and will lead the line alongside Fabio Vieira or Mehdi Taremi.

Meanwhile, Serie A Capocannoniere leader Ciro Immobile is a major absentee for Lazio, so Felipe Anderson - who played ten times for Porto while on loan at the Dragao last term - and Jovane Cabral (recently signed on loan from Sporting) could feature in the front three.

Maurizio Sarri is also set to be without defenders Francesco Acerbi and Manuel Lazzarri due to injury, but otherwise has a full squad - including creative fulcrum Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who has scored eight and made eight goals in Serie A this season.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Vitinha, Uribe, Grujic, Galeno; Evanlison, Taremi

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Felipe, Patric, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Alberto; Zaccagni, Pedro, Anderson


SM words green background

We say: Porto 2-1 Lazio

Though Lazio are on a largely positive run of form they do not often travel well, so Porto can take a first-leg advantage to Rome next week.

Despite recent improvement, the visitors can also be exploited defensively, and the Primeira Liga leaders have sufficient firepower to make them pay for any slip-ups or positional errors.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 59.26%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 20.51% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-2 (5.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Porto in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Porto vs Lazio

Porto
74.9%
Draw
14.9%
Lazio
10.2%
255
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