Two sides with playoff ambitions in the Western Conference will face off in a crunch end-of-season fixture on Thursday, with plenty riding on the Vancouver Whitecaps' trip to the Portland Timbers.
The Timbers need nine points from a possible 15 to secure their progression, whilst Vancouver sit one point outside the top seven and are chasing a selection of sides just above them.
Match preview
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Nestled in the North-Western corner of the United States, there are few sides in the division that can actually travel South to face the Timbers, yet the Whitecaps will make the trip across the border from Canada for their match-up this week.
Trips to the Beaver State have not been successful in recent years for the Whitecaps, who have lost all but one of their last 10 visits to Portland, with their only victory since June 2014 coming three seasons ago.
Much of their success against the Timbers in past campaigns has come at home, which is where they have fared better this season, with nine of their 10 Major League Soccer victories coming in familiar surroundings at BC Place.
It is just one win on the road for Vancouver this season, a record that has seen their hopes of returning to the playoffs hanging by a thread as we enter the final weeks of the 2021 campaign.
With just one appearance in the playoffs since 2016 - a quarter-final run in the 2017 season - the Whitecaps have had a tough time imposing themselves on the division, registering just one top-half finish in the previous five campaigns.
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Generally considered as the lesser of Canada's three MLS sides, the sole team in the Western Conference from over the border will be keen to silence their rivals by qualifying for the playoffs.
A run of just one win from 12 matches in the summer left the Whitecaps with work to do, yet under interim coach Vanni Sartini the 2015 Canadian Championship winners have wriggled themselves into a position where they still have a chance of progression.
One of five sides separated by six points between eighth and fourth, Vancouver are currently the outsiders in the playoff chase, with their next fixture coming against the frontrunners, the Timbers.
Unlike Thursday's opponents, Portland have been in the mix throughout the campaign, yet a less than convincing away record has cost them from challenging for the Supporters' Shield.
Eight of their 11 losses this season have come when playing on the road, compared to a mere three at Providence Park, where the Timbers boast the Western Conference's third-best home record this year.
Losing only once in their last nine home matches suggests their mid-week meeting with Vancouver will lead to another three points for the Timbers, who will enter the playoffs with their sights set on a first MLS Cup since 2015.
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Team News
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Few MLS players are in better form than the Whitecaps' Ryan Gauld, with the Aberdeen-born midfielder netting his third goal since joining the club in the summer during Vancouver's 2-1 win over San Jose Earthquakes last time out.
Gauld will line up behind attacking duo Brian White and Cristian Dajome when they travel South to face the Timbers, and the trio will look to trouble a Portland defence that has kept one clean sheet in their last six matches.
Sartini will be after all the help he can muster for this potentially tricky tie and the Whitecaps coach will be buoyed by a relatively full squad to choose from, with only Caio Alexandre (broken ankle) absent for the trip.
By contrast, Sartini's opposite number has a number of injuries to contend with, after four first-team regulars have been ruled out for the rest of the Timbers' season.
Andy Polo, Jeff Attinella and Ismaila Jome will not feature again for Giovanni Savarese's side, whilst Eryk Williamson will face a tough challenge to be fit for the start of the next campaign, after suffering anterior cruciate ligament damage in early September.
A depleted Portland side will likely turn to top-scorer Felipe Mora, who has netted 11 times in MLS this season, yet the Chile international has gone three matches without a goal – his longest goalless streak since mid-May.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bonilla; Paredes, D. Chara; Y. Chara, Asprilla, Blanco; Mora
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Jungwirth, Veselinovic, Godoy; Brown, Owusu, Teibert, Gaspar; Gauld, White, Dajome
We say: Portland Timbers 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Time is running out for the Whitecaps if they are to return to the playoffs after a lengthy hiatus and a visit to Portland is not an ideal fixture when looking for points.
The Timbers have been imperious at home this season and almost-invincible at home against Vancouver in past years, so another victory seems likely here.
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 61.09%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 18.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 1-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
