The Portuguese Primeira Liga returns with a fresh set of fixtures as Benfica and Portimonense go head to head at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on Saturday.
The visitors will head into the game seeking to get one over the Alvinegros after falling to a slender 1-0 defeat back in October's reverse fixture.
Match preview
© Reuters
Portimonense were involved in a share of the spoils for the fourth consecutive game as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Vizela away from home last Sunday.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio do FC Vizela, Willyan Rocha broke the deadlock in the 17th minute before Braga loanee Guilherme Schettine netted 19 minutes later to force a share of the spoils.
Portimonense have now failed to win any of their last 10 games across all competitions, claiming five draws and losing five since a seeing off Famalicao on penalties in the Taca de Portugal back in December.
Their recent struggles have been owing to their lack of defensive sturdiness as they have now failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 games, while conceding 19 since a 1-0 win over Moreirense on December 12.
With 29 points from 24 games, Paulo Sergio's are currently eighth in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with ninth-placed Maritimo and 13 off Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
© Reuters
Benfica, on the other hand, returned to winning ways last weekend when they comfortably saw off sixth-placed Vitoria de Guimaraes 3-0 on home turf.
After taking the lead midway through the first half through Goncalo Ramos, Uruguayan forward Darwin Nunez was at it again as he struck twice to hand Nelson Verissimo's side a commanding victory.
This followed a thrilling 2-2 draw with Ajax in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final clash when the sides squared off at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on February 23.
Benfica head into Saturday's game unbeaten in each of their last five games across all competitions — their longest run without defeat since seeing their 18-game unbeaten run come to an end on September 3, when they lost 1-0 to Saturday's hosts.
As Aguias have won 17, drawn three and lost four of their 24 league games this season to collect 54 points and sit third in the Primeira Liga standings, four points off second-placed Sporting Lisbon and 10 behind league leaders Porto.
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Sergio will be unable to call upon the services of 21-year-old forward Ricardo Matos, who picked up an injury in the game against Santa Clara last time out.
Portimonense will also have to make do with the absence of Achraf Lazaar after the Moroccan full-back sustained a severe fibula injury back in September.
Pedro Sa is also out of contention for the Alvinegros after the 28-year-old midfielder sustained a muscle problem against Gil Vicente on January 23.
Benfica, on the other hand, will take to the pitch without the services of Portuguese defender Andre Almeida, who picked up an injury in February's game against Gil Vicente.
The Brazilian duo of Rodrigo Pinho and Lucas Verissimo are also recuperating from injuries, Swiss forward Haris Seferovic has been out of action since January through a leg problem.
Nunez, who leads the league's goalscoring chart with 20 goals from 20 games, delivered the goods once again as he hit a brace against Vitoria de Guimaraes and we expect the 22-year-old to lead the line once again.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Pedrao, Rocha, Gomes; Fernandes, Rocha, Ewerton; Nakajima, Angulo, Oliveira
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Everton, Weigl, Bernardo, Silva; Yaremchuk, Nunez
We say: Portimonense 1-2 Benfica
Portimonense have struggled to get going since the turn of the year, picking up five points from their last 27 available. Next up is an opposing side who appear to have hit their stride once again, claiming three wins and two draws from their last five games. Benfica boast a superior and more experienced crop of players and we predict they will make use of this advantage and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 55.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.85%) and 0-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
