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Peru national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Mar 30, 2022 at 12.30am UK
 
Paraguay national football team

Peru
2 - 0
Paraguay

Lapadula (5'), Yotun (42')
Lapadula (28')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Rojas (45'), Ortiz (55')

Preview: Peru vs. Paraguay - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Peru and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Peru and Paraguay draw the curtain on their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign when they go head to head at the Estadio Nacional de Lima on Tuesday.

While Los Guaranies are currently eighth in the standings, the hosts are in fifth place, one point above Colombia just outside the playoff spot.


Match preview

Peru's Carlos Zambrano and teammates look dejected after Uruguay's Giorgian de Arrascaeta scored their first goal on March 24, 2022© Reuters

Peru suffered another huge blow in their bid for a place in Qatar later in the year when they fell to a slender 1-0 defeat at the hands of Uruguay last Friday.

In an end-to-end affair at the Estadio Centenario, Flamengo forward Giorgian De Arrascaeta came up trumps for the hosts as he scored the only goal of the game three minutes before half time.

Prior to that, Ricardo Gareca's men were on an impressive seven game unbeaten run across all competitions, with three wins and one draw coming in the World Cup qualifiers.

With 21 points from 17 games, La Blanquirroja are currently fifth in the standings, one point above Colombia just outside the playoffs qualification spot.

While Peru need maximum points on Tuesday to keep their World Cup qualification hopes alive and kicking, they will fancy their chances against an opposing side who they are unbeaten in each of the last eight meetings between the teams, claiming seven wins and one draw since a 2-1 friendly defeat back in 2014.

Paraguay players after the match on February 2, 2022© Reuters

Paraguay, on the other hand, returned to winning in style as they saw off Ecuador 3-1 when the sides locked horns at the Estadio Antonio Aranda last time out.

Robert Morales's ninth-minute strike and an own goal from Piero Hincapie saw Paraguay grab a two-goal lead heading into half time, and after Newcastle United forward Miguel Almiron netted in the 54th minute, Jordy Caicedo grabbed a consolation Ecuador from the penalty spot with five minutes left to play.

Prior to that, Los Guaranies were on a dire seven-game winless run, losing five and claiming two draws, while failing to score and shipping 12 goals in that time.

Guillermo Barros Schelotto's side have picked up three wins, drawn three and lost seven of their 17 qualifying games to collect 16 points and sit in eighth place on the log.

Paraguay's struggles in the qualifiers have come at the attacking end of the pitch, where they boast the poorest record of all 10 teams in the table with 12 while conceding 24 so far.

Peru World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Peru form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Paraguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W


Team News

Peru coach Ricardo Gareca on March 24, 2022© Reuters

Gareca will be unable to call upon the services of Andre Carrillo, who was hooked off injured in the 65th minute against Uruguay on Friday.

A medical test revealed the Al-Hilal Saudi midfielder picked up a severe ACL problem and will be out of action for approximately three months.

In his absence, Christofer Gonzales and Edison Flores, who turn out for Sporting Cristal and DC United respectively, will push for a starting role in midfield.

Meanwhile, Paraguay will take to the pitch without Blas Riveros after the Brondby full-back received his marching orders in the game against Ecuador last time out.

On the injury front, Robert Morales was withdrawn inside the opening 14 minutes after sustaining an injury and is out of contention for Tuesday's game.

Other than that, we expect Schelotto to field a similar side from the victory over Ecuador, meaning we could see an attacking trio of Almiron, Angel Romero and Julio Enciso.

Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Advíncula, Zambrano, Callens, Trauco; Tapia; Gonzales, Pena, Yotun, Cueva; Lapadula

Paraguay possible starting lineup:
Silva; Rojas, Gomez, Balbuena, Arzamendia; Sanchez, Ortiz, Cubas; Almiron, A Romero, Enciso


SM words green background

We say: Peru 2-0 Paraguay

Just one point above sixth-placed Columbia, Peru need maximum points to keep their World Cup qualification dreams alive. Next up is a floundering opposing side who have managed just one win in their last eight games. We predict Peru will take full advantage of their home crowd support and come away with all three points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 35%. A win for Peru had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.87%) and 1-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Peru win was 1-0 (13.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Peru in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Peru vs Paraguay

Peru
75.9%
Draw
9.5%
Paraguay
14.6%
137
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