Paris Saint-Germain Women travel to Barcelona Women on Sunday, with the hosts looking to build on the away goal they scored in the first leg.
Barca ended a run of six defeats against French opposition in the Women's Champions League with a 1-1 draw in the first leg, and will be sure of a place in the final if they can prevent PSG from scoring in the second leg.
Match preview
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The hosts have played one league match between the two legs of this semi-final tie, defeating Madrid 2-0 in the Primera Division Femenina and moving 17 points clear of second-placed Levante in the process.
A brace from 18-year-old Bruna Vilamala sealed that win last time out, and with two games in hand on Levante, Lluis Cortes's side only need four points from their remaining nine games to clinch their second consecutive league title.
The probability of the Spanish giants claiming the league title is extremely high considering their record in the Primera Division Femenina this season, winning 100% of their 25 games so far.
Barcelona's visitors on Sunday are also going well in their respective league having only dropped two points to date, however it is much tighter in the Feminine Division 1 with PSG only one point clear of rivals Lyon.
The first-leg tie between the two sides brought out the best in PSG goalkeeper Christiane Endler, who despite feeling she could have done more to prevent Jenni Hermoso's opening goal, did produce multiple reflex saves to ensure the French side came away from the game avoiding defeat.
Barca managed to create many chances in front of the Parisians' goal which would disappoint Olivier Echouafni when his side's defensive record this season has been so strong, only conceding two goals in 17 league matches.
Alana Cook was the unlikely goalscorer for PSG last week as she drew the sides level only eight minutes after her team fell behind, the goal being the 20-year-old defender's first in professional football.
Paris' equaliser was one of only two shots they registered on target, and therefore the visitors this time around will be hoping to create better opportunities to secure an away goal for themselves in this semi-final tie.
PSG go into this game at the Estadi Johan Cruyff with slightly more experience than their opponents in this stage of the Champions League, the French side reaching the final twice before now compared to Barcelona only winning one of their three semi-finals.
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Team News
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Barca continue to be without long-term absentee Andrea Falcon but are boosted for the second-leg tie with the return of previously-suspended midfielder Patri Guijarro, who has been an integral member of the Spanish giants' squad since 2017.
Goalscorer Asisat Oshoala came off the bench in the first leg following a spell on the sidelines after undergoing foot surgery, and is in contention to come into Cortes's starting 11.
Hermoso's goal against PSG last weekend moved the striker on to six goals in the Champions League this season, and she is in line to challenge for the Golden Boot in this campaign, however Hermoso and Oshoala have rarely started together so Cortes is likely to select one of the forward pair to start this game.
As for Sunday's visitors, they are hoping to be able to select 26-year-old Kadidiatou Diani, who has entered double figures for goals for the Parisian side in the last four seasons, after she missed the first leg due to injury.
Echouafni has admitted that his side need to be more clinical in front of goal in the second leg; PSG have only found the net three times in their last four games, compared to Barcelona's ten goals in their last four games in the Champions League.
Barcelona Women possible starting lineup:
Panos; Ouahabi, Leon, Pereira, Torrejon; Putellas, Bonmati, Guijarro; Martens, Hermoso, Hansen
Paris Saint-Germain Women possible starting lineup:
Endler; Cook, Paredes, Dudek, Morroni; Geyoro, Formiga, Dabritz; Baltimore, Katoto, Nadim
We say: Barcelona Women 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain Women
Barca had the upper hand in the first leg when it came to the chances created and PSG had to rely on goalkeeper Endler to keep the Parisians in the tie, but the Spanish side will take confidence from last weekend and they do have an away goal to build upon.
Last time out at home in the Champions League, Barca put three past Manchester City and have not lost at the Estadi Johan Cruyff since 2019, during a period of scoring at least three or more goals in each game bar three.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona Women win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain Women had a probability of 25.51% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.62%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain Women win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Barcelona Women in this match.
