Palmeiras will try to move into first place in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table when they host Santos at Allianz Parque on Saturday.
Palestra are coming off a 2-0 win over Gremio on Wednesday and are currently even with Bragantino on 22 points, while Peixe moved up to seventh in the table with a 2-1 win over Athletico Paranaense on Tuesday.
Match preview
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As they get set to play their eleventh game of this domestic campaign, Palmeiras appear to be coming into their own, winning their last four contests and going unbeaten at home in their opening five matches.
After capturing three trophies last season, manager Abel Ferreira and his team look hungry for more this time around, and they are in a prime position to capture their first Serie A title since the 2018 campaign.
Allianz Parque has become one of the most challenging places for opposing teams to play, with Verdao losing only once at home in league play since the 2019 campaign.
A big reason why they have been so good at home could be the fact that they have started matches incredibly well, scoring in the first half of every one of their home league fixtures so far this season, four of which have come in the opening 10 minutes.
When this team are in front early, they thrive, going unbeaten in their last seven home games in which they have scored the opening goal.
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Santos did themselves a huge favour this week by beating Atletico Paranaense 2-1, and despite winning on an own goal, they deserved the three points after firing eight shots on target and completing 86% of their passes.
Lately, manager Fernando Diniz has seen his side fall behind in the table by struggling against some of the teams near the bottom of the standings, drawing Gremio 2-2, losing to America Mineiro and failing to score against Sport Recife in a 0-0 draw.
They seem to struggle away from home, without a win so far this season and failing to score in three of their four fixtures away from Vila Belmiro.
If they are looking for a challenge, they will get plenty in the weeks to come, as their next two domestic league matches are on the road against the top two teams in Brazil at the moment (Palmeiras and Bragantino).
Putting together a run of some sort could be a big help to them, as they have failed to win consecutive matches in 2021, but in the weeks to come, they have an opportunity to show the rest of the country that they belong with the big clubs in Brazil.
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Team News
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Palmeiras could be without leading goalscorer Breno Lopes, who has a stretched ligament, while left-back Matias Vina was called up to the Uruguay squad and right-back Marcos Rocha could be eligible to return from his yellow card suspension.
Attacking midfielder Raphael Veiga scored his first goal since June 27 on Wednesday, just one minute into that contest, while goalkeeper Jailson has back-to-back clean sheets for his side, saving four shots versus Gremio.
Central midfielder Sandry will miss another game this weekend with a ruptured knee ligament, while centre-back Luiz Felipe returned to the lineup on Tuesday after serving his yellow card suspension.
Striker Marcos Guilherme ended his two-game scoring drought on Tuesday, with a goal 31 minutes into that contest, as he and his teammate Marinho are tied for the team lead in goals with three.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Jalison; Renan, Luan, Gomez, Mayke; Danilo, Ze Rafael; Veiga, Lima, Wesley; Rony
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Madson, Felipe, Boza; Camacho, Marinho; Pirani, Sanchez, Braga; Guilherme, Raniel
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 Santos
Palmeiras have not lost a domestic fixture at home to Santos in their last six matches, and they are the second-highest scoring team in the league because they have various players who can find the back of the net.
Santos seem to get overwhelmed by opposing crowds and will have a hard time shutting down a side poised to win multiple trophies for a second consecutive season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 55%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Santos had a probability of 21.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
