The New York Red Bulls have an opportunity to catch Orlando City for second place in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer when the two sides face each other on Sunday at Exploria Stadium.
The Lions have won three straight matches in all competitions, while New York are winless in back-to-back league games, drawing 0-0 with Dallas a week ago as they currently sit three points behind Orlando in the table.
Match preview
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After a difficult defeat versus Los Angeles FC (4-2) to open the month of April, Orlando City have settled into a nice rhythm defensively, failing to concede in back-to-back MLS games.
Manager Oscar Pareja has praised the commitment shown by his players over the past couple of weeks in what has been a solid collective effort within his group.
There were few openings when they hosted the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the third round of the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday, but Orlando were able to dig in and produce a couple of moments of quality to capture a 2-1 win.
That performance sums up what we have seen from Orlando City so far this year in MLS, as they might take a little time to settle in before making their opportunities count.
When this team find themselves trailing, they can be vulnerable, losing their only two matches of the year when conceding first and without a victory in that scenario since October 2, 2021.
They come into this contest winless in their last three meetings against the Red Bulls, narrowly losing 2-1 at Exploria Stadium last season.
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It has been a frustrating month for Gerhard Struber and his Red Bulls, who have struggled domestically, going winless in back-to-back contests.
After a bright start offensively to the campaign, scoring seven goals in their first two games, we have seen them cool off recently, firing 17 efforts on target in their previous three matches but scoring only twice, one of which was an own goal from Matt Polster of the New England Revolution.
Their Austrian coach has called on his players to find more resilience, and they had an excellent bounce-back performance in midweek, edging Hartford Athletic 2-1 in the third round of the U.S. Open Cup.
What is most bizarre about their current run of poor form domestically is that they have struggled at Red Bull Arena - without a win this season in what has been a fortress for them in previous campaigns.
The other side of that coin is that the Red Bulls have yet to lose this year away from home, winning all three of their MLS road games by a combined score of 8-2.
Down the stretch of the 2021 regular season, New York were able to turn their campaign around thanks to some good defensive work, and that structure and organization has been a lot more prevalent away from home in 2022.
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Team News
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Antonio Carlos is nursing a left thigh injury and will not be available for Orlando City, while Pareja made three changes to the starting 11 against Columbus as Kyle Smith, Junior Urso and Benji Michel all drew into the lineup.
Rodrigo Schlegel notched his first goal of the season last weekend, Ercan Kara has tallied once in each of their previous two MLS encounters, while Facundo Torres collected his second assist of the year.
Alexandre Pato and Urso each tallied for the Lions in their U.S. Open Cup victory versus the Tampa Bay Rowdies, and Thomas Williams started his first game after making his debut against Columbus.
Mason Stajduhar made his first start in the U.S. Open, replacing first-choice keeper Pedro Gallese, who is tied with Gabriel Slonina for the league lead in clean sheets with five.
The Red Bulls will be without Andres Reyes and Wikelman Carmona with foot issues, Cameron Harper is dealing with a quad strain, Serge Ngoma has a sore hamstring and Caden Clark is nursing a knee injury.
Carlos Coronel collected his second shutout of the domestic campaign, stopping two Dallas shots in their scoreless draw.
Lewis Morgan and Aaron Long each scored in the first-half to give New York a 2-1 victory over Hartford in the U.S. Open Cup, while John Tolkin, Sean Nealis and Dylan Nealis made life easy for goalkeeper Ryan Meara, who only faced one shot over 90 minutes.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Jansson, Schlegel, Ruan; Araujo, Urso; Torres, Pereyra, Mendez; Kara
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Edwards, S. Nealis, D. Nealis, Long; Amaya, Yearwood, Casseres, Tolkin; Klimala, Fletcher
We say: Orlando City 1-1 New York Red Bulls
Orlando and New York can put on a virtuoso performance with quality individuals who can break a game open, but it seems as though those multiple-goal games for each are few and far between.
These two teams know how to find that extra gear to avoid defeat, and we expect them both to do enough to earn a point on Sunday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
