Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand Under-23s win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for USA Under-23s had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest USA Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
New Zealand Under-23s	Draw	USA Under-23s
47.47% ( 8.13)	23.25% ( -0.28)	29.28% ( -7.85)

Both teams to score 61.29% (

-1.97)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.12% (

-1.34)

39.88% (

1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.76% (

-1.4)

62.24% (

1.39)

New Zealand Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.91% (

2.85)

17.08% (

-2.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.73% (

4.82)

47.27% (

-4.82)

USA Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.91% (

-5.1)

26.08% (

5.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.86% (

-7.38)

61.13% (

7.37)

Score Analysis

New Zealand Under-23s 47.47%

USA Under-23s 29.28%

Draw 23.25%

New Zealand Under-23s	Draw	USA Under-23s
2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.86) 1-0 @ 7.87% ( 1.12) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 1.52) 3-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.94) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 1.17) 3-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.59) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.63) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.2) Other @ 4.11% Total : 47.47%	1-1 @ 10.58% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.25%	1-2 @ 7.11% ( -1.11) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.55) 0-2 @ 4.02% ( -1.08) 1-3 @ 3.19% ( -1.09) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.64) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.85) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.6) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.4) Other @ 2.34% Total : 29.28%