Paris 2024

Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage

Jul 24, 2024 at 6pm UK

Stade Matmut-Atlantique

Japan U23s
5 - 0
Paraguay U23s

Mito (19', 63'), Yamamoto (70'), Fujio (82', 87')
Takai (50'), Sekine (58')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Fabian Fernandez Benitez (8'), De Jesus (80'), Gonzalez (90+6')
Viera (25')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Olympic Games Men's Football clash between Japan Under-23s and Paraguay Under-23s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan Under-23s

Last Game: Mexico U23s 3-1 Japan U23s
Friday, August 6 at 10am in Olympic Games Men's Football

Paraguay Under-23s

Last Game: Argentina U23s 1-1 Paraguay U23s
Tuesday, January 7 at 11pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Under-23s win with a probability of 80.72%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Paraguay Under-23s had a probability of 6.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan Under-23s win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.9%) and 1-0 (10.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a Paraguay Under-23s win it was 0-1 (2.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan Under-23s would win this match.

Result
Japan Under-23s	Draw	Paraguay Under-23s
80.72% ( -5.96)	13.03% ( 3.54)	6.25% ( 2.42)

Both teams to score 42.46% (

3.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.31% (

-6.1)

36.69% (

6.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.15% (

-6.96)

58.85% (

6.96)

Japan Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.95% (

-2.31)

7.05% (

2.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.26% (

-6.56)

25.74% (

6.56)

Paraguay Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.68% (

4.42)

54.32% (

-4.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.53% (

2.52)

87.47% (

-2.52)

Score Analysis

Japan Under-23s 80.71%

Paraguay Under-23s 6.25%

Draw 13.03%

Japan Under-23s	Draw	Paraguay Under-23s
2-0 @ 13.46% ( 0.53) 3-0 @ 11.9% ( -1.25) 1-0 @ 10.15% ( 1.67) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 1.33) 4-0 @ 7.9% ( -2.13) 3-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.52) 5-0 @ 4.19% ( -1.93) 5-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.7) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.36) 6-0 @ 1.85% ( -1.26) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.53) Other @ 3.58% Total : 80.71%	1-1 @ 6.2% ( 1.68) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 1.05) 2-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.68) Other @ 0.5% Total : 13.03%	0-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.86) 1-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.69) Other @ 2.02% Total : 6.25%