Norwich City will resume their against-the-odds battle for Premier League survival on Friday night when they host Southampton in the opening match of the first full gameweek back after the coronavirus pandemic.
Daniel Farke's side sit six points adrift of safety with nine games of their season remaining, whereas Southampton are seemingly clear of danger as they look to complete their first ever top-flight double over the Canaries.
Match preview
© Reuters
At one stage during the Premier League's more-than-three-month absence there was the suggestion that relegation might be scrapped for 2019-20 - a solution which will no doubt have had more backing in the Norwich camp than most other places.
However, they will now have to complete the job on the pitch as they look to make up the six-point gap which separates them from safety over the final nine games of the campaign.
While their survival hopes look bleak, all hope is not lost; Norwich have won plenty of plaudits for their playing style and, in beating Leicester City in their penultimate league game before lockdown, they proved that they can beat most teams on their day.
Indeed, Farke's side have taken points off Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and - most memorably - Manchester City in the Premier League this season, yet they have also lost 18 of their 29 outings and have only won two of their last 16.
Goals have been the main issue for Norwich, who scored just once in their five league games immediately before lockdown and have a joint league-low 25 to their name for the season as a whole so far.
© Reuters
Despite the best efforts of Teemu Pukki, who has scored a league-best 44% of his side's goals, Norwich have the lowest shot conversion rate of any side this season, with the Canaries converting just 25 of their 335 efforts - or 7.5% - so far.
Farke may also be concerned about Norwich's home advantage dropping off with behind-closed-doors matches, as has happened in the Bundesliga, considering that 15 of their 21 points this season have come at Carrow Road.
Indeed, Norwich had won two of their last three home league games before lockdown, while champions-elect Liverpool are the only visiting team to have won at Carrow Road in the top flight since Christmas.
Victory on Friday night would see them record back-to-back home Premier League wins in the same season for the first time since January 2016 - when incidentally the second match came against Southampton.
However, the visitors will be hopeful that the break has allowed them to shake off a poor run of form themselves prior to lockdown, while they have also been boosted by the news that manager Ralph Hasenhuttl has signed a four-year contract extension at St Mary's.
© Reuters
The decision to hand the Austrian a new contract marked a remarkable turnaround from when he looked destined for the exit door after a 9-0 home defeat to Leicester City in October, although his side had suffered another slump in form before play was suspended.
Southampton have lost five of their last six games across all competitions, including back-to-back matches against West Ham United and Newcastle United in their most recent two competitive outings.
However, a hugely productive festive period, during which they accrued 13 points from an available 15, was enough to ensure that they have not been dragged into the relegation battle and they are now only six points shy of the magic 40-point mark.
It is away from home where the Saints have been most impressive this term, chalking up six victories on the road, which is one shy of their club-record for a single Premier League campaign and is also a tally only the current top four can beat.
The visitors will arrive at Carrow Road on a run of back-to-back away defeats, though, and they have not suffered three consecutive top-flight losses since December 2018.
The last five editions of this fixture have been won by the home side too, while Southampton have only won one of their seven previous Premier League visits to Carrow Road, with that triumph coming back in 1994.
Norwich Premier League form: LDLLWL
Norwich form (all competitions): DLLWWL
Southampton Premier League form: WLLWLL
Southampton form (all competitions): LLLWLL
Team News
© Reuters
The break in play has given most injury concerns the chance to recover in time for the end of the campaign, but Southampton will be without Moussa Djenepo for this match following his red card against Newcastle last time out.
Shane Long, who like his manager Hasenhuttl recently signed a new contract with the club, is the only injury doubt for the visitors due to a muscle problem which is likely to keep him out of this first game back.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg could also be left out after he was stripped of the captaincy amid speculation over his future, with James Ward-Prowse inheriting the armband.
Danny Ings is expected to lead the line regardless of whether Long is fit, with the 15-goal striker having netted just once in his last seven Premier League outings following a run of 10 goals in 11 games before that.
Ings is second to only Pukki when it comes to players who have scored the highest proportion of their team's goals this season, and the Norwich striker is expected to start again as he looks to fire his side to safety.
Emiliano Buendia has provided Pukki with plenty of ammunition and his seven assists this season is among the best in the league, although he is yet to get on the scoresheet himself this term.
Farke has been hit with a triple injury blow which will see Grant Hanley, Christoph Zimmermann and Sam Byram miss the remainder of the season.
Timm Klose is now back in training, though, while Onel Hernandez, who was also due to miss a large chunk of the campaign through injury, could be in contention to feature too.
Norwich possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Hanley, Godfrey, Lewis; Tettey, McLean; Buendia, Duda, Cantwell; Pukki
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Stephens, Bednarek, Bertrand; Ward-Prowse, Romeu; Armstrong, Redmond; Ings, Obafemi
We say: Norwich 0-1 Southampton
The home side may have dominated this fixture in recent times, but home advantage will not be as big of a factor in empty stadiums and that is bound to harm the likes of Norwich when trying to beat teams who, man for man, have more quality than them.
Southampton have won each of their last six Premier League games against promoted teams - as many as they had in their previous 23 such outings - and we are backing them to extend that club-record run on Friday night.
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 37.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.1%) and 0-2 (5.88%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
