Madrid Open: Jasmine Paolini vs. Laura Siegemund - prediction, head-to-head

Meeting for the first time in over two years, Jasmine Paolini and Laura Siegemund will be vying for a place in the round of 32 at the Madrid Open on Thursday.

In her previous singles tournament, Paolini was ousted in her opening match at the Porsche Grand Prix in Stuttgart by Zeynep Sonmez 2-6 2-6, while Siegemund got to the round of 16 of that competition before Iga Swiatek beat her 2-6 3-6.

Match preview

Beginning on Thursday, Jasmine Paolini hopes to turn what has been an up-and-down 2026 campaign around when she faces Siegemund for the fourth time.

The Italian has won three of her last four opening round singles matches on tour but has only made it beyond the last 16 once, losing to Cristina Busca in the Merida Open in Mexico.

In the past, she has fared well on clay, capturing the Internazional BNL d’Italia last year, though she exited the Porsche Grand Prix on clay after one encounter.

A two-time Grand Slam singles finalist, Paolini got to the round of 32 at the 2025 Madrid Open, where she was beaten by Maria Sakkari 2-6 1-6.

At this stage of the year, she has won 63.4% of her service games while saving 59.9% of her break points and boasting a 10-5 record in 2026.

On the opposite end, she has managed to win 44.4% of her return games this year, while collecting a respectable 39.9% in return games won.

At 38, it appears as though Laura Siegemund is in the tail end of what has been a strong career in both the singles and doubles side of things for the native of Stuttgart.

This former US Open doubles champion has won her last three opening-round matches on the singles side after losing her openers at the Dubai and Qatar tournaments.

The trilingual speaker who grew up idolizing German legend Steffi Graf has lost her opening match on clay in five of her previous six such instances, including her first qualifier at this tournament last year to Francesca Jones 4-6 3-6.

Thursday will mark her first appearance in the round of 64 at the Madrid Open since 2023, when she was beaten by Petra Martic in straight sets..

So far in 2026, she has won 47.3% of her second serves while boasting a solid first serve percentage of 74.5.

It feels as though Siegemund has lost some power on her serve, however, registering just 19 aces for the year with 31 double faults.

Head To Head

Bucharest Open (2018) - First Round: Siegemund wins 6-4, 6-0

Palermo Open (2019) - Round of 32: Paolini wins 6-1, 6-4

Zhengzhou Open (2023) - First Round: Paolini wins 6-0, 7-5

When these two first squared off in Romania years ago, Siegemund captured six break points while winning 61% of her service points overall.

The following year, they’d meet again in Paolini’s home country with the Italian boasting an impressive 80% on her first serves while claiming five break point opportunities in the victory.

When they last met in China at the Zhengzhou Open, Siegemund registered five double faults to Paolini’s none, with the latter winning 72% of her first serves to take the match.

We say: Paolini to win in two sets

Siegemund’s movement on the court seems to be a little slower these days, whereas Paolini still has plenty of quickness and should have the German guessing throughout this match.