Newcastle Jets host Melbourne Victory on Saturday in a pivotal game at the bottom of the Australian A-League.
The visitors currently sit 12th in the league, three points behind the Jets with a game in hand, setting up a six-pointer in the quest to not finish rock-bottom.
Match preview
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The Jets, managed by Craig Deans, have never finished lower than 10th in the A-League and so will be determined to improve on recent form to lift them up the table during the final two months of the season.
After an unbeaten five-game run between the end of January and the end of February, form has dipped with the team recording six losses on the bounce.
Last time out the Jets lost at the McDonald Jones stadium, falling to an early goal from Weston United's Lachlan Wales, despite having 20 attempts at goal.
That result means that Dean's side have not won at home since February 7 when they beat high-flying Melbourne City 1-0.
Cause for concern for Jets' fans will be that their team is the lowest scoring in the league, having only netted 12 times this season.
However, the visitors on Saturday have not been much better in front of goal, managing 13 goals in their 14 league games.
Melbourne Victory's league position may be even more of a surprise as they have four league titles in their trophy cabinet.
A dramatic fall from finishing third in the 2018-19 season to finishing 10th last season shows worrying signs for Victory.
Grant Brebner's side have only recorded two wins this season and have conceded the highest number of goals with 34.
Striker Elvis Kamsoba was sent off during the last game, and his teammates succumbed to a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Sydney FC.
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Team News
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Newcastle Jets will continue without three players sidelined due to longer-term injuries including Johnny Koutroumbis, Nigel Boogaard and Tete Yengi.
Deans was impressed with his midfield three against Western United despite the result, so Luka Prso, Angus Thurgate and Ramy Najjarine are all expected to retain their places on Saturday.
The visitors will continue to be without defender Ryan Shotton and, despite a return to training for Rudy Gestede, the game comes too early for him to make a return.
Suspension for Kamsoba means that he misses out as well, potentially giving the opportunity for Luis Lawrie-Lattanzio or Ben Falomi to start in his place.
Other than the longer-term injuries and the one suspension, Brebner expects his side to be relatively unchanged.
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Italiano; O'Toole, Topor-Stanley, Jackson, Millar; Prso, Thurgate; Najjarine, Yuel, Stamatelopoulos; O'Donovan
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Acton; Traore, Ryan, Ansell, Roux; Barnett, Butterfield; Brimmer, Kruse, McManaman; Folami
We say: Newcastle Jets 2-0 Melbourne Victory
Brebner's side are yet to record a victory away from home this season, and with the Jets creating a good amount of chances at the McDonald Jones stadium against Western United last time out, we predict the home side to convert some of those chances on Saturday and win this bottom-of-the-table clash.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 25.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
