The top team in Major League Soccer will try to extend their unbeaten run to eight games when the New England Revolution host DC United on Wednesday at Gillette Stadium.
On Saturday, New England needed a late penalty, outlasting Toronto 2-1, while DC had their five-match unbeaten run snapped on Sunday, losing 5-2 to Nashville SC.
Match preview
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The race for first place in the Eastern Conference has turned into a one-sided affair lately, with the Revs starting to pull away, currently holding a 12-point cushion atop the table.
Week after week, Bruce Arena has seen his team get the job done, winning four of their last five contests, all by a single goal, including the winner in the 83rd minute last weekend.
All season long critics have doubted that this team can maintain their first-place status, and that seems to have lit a fire in them to prove those critics wrong.
Just about everything has gone right for the Revs of late, they have a striker in fine goalscoring form, they are not conceding as many goals as they had previously, and they are among the best playmaking teams in MLS, leading the league in assists with 39.
With six wins in their last seven games, about the only bad thing for this side right now is the fact that they still have 14 games to play in the regular season, and a lot can happen between then and now.
The Revolution have been fast starters all year long, leading the league in first-half goals with 20, while going unbeaten when scoring the opening goal this season (11-0-2) and they have yet to lose when leading at the half with eight wins and a draw.
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They got the start they wanted, scoring three minutes into their match on Sunday, but the Black-and-Red could not contain the strong attacking play of Nashville, who stormed back with three first-half strikes, and another two in the final 10 minutes for good measure, handing DC their worst defeat since the second game of the year when they fell 4-1 to the San Jose Earthquakes.
In 2021 Hernan Losada has seen his team score their fair share of goals, notching multiple times in seven matches this year, but last weekend the shoe was on the other foot as DC conceded the most goals in a single game since falling 5-1 to the Philadelphia Union in 2019.
After 19 games, the Black-and-Red are still in a playoff position, currently in sixth in the Eastern Conference, but there is little room for error as only three points separate them from the ninth-place Columbus Crew at the moment.
For most of 2021, DC have struggled on the road, losing six times and failing to score on three occasions, including their last visit to Greater Boston, where they could muster only one shot on target.
DC may be above the playoff line after 19 games, but if they want to remain in the top seven and possibly make a strong run in the postseason, they need to start earning some points against the stronger sides in this league.
They have only won two of their nine fixtures versus teams who are currently in a playoff position, and they will hope that they can change that in a hurry with two of their next three games against sides in the top five of their conference (New England and Philadelphia).
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Team News
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Revs midfielder Carles Gil missed his third consecutive match last weekend with a muscular injury, while Luis Caicedo remains out with a lower-body injury.
Gustavo Bou increased his tally of goals to 12, with his second successive game-winning strike this past weekend, putting him one back of Raul Ruidiaz, while Saturday was a special night for Revs midfielder Tajon Buchanan, who played his first match in his home province of Ontario, scoring the opening goal of the game.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner picked up his ninth career victory of the season over the weekend, a new MLS-career high for him, DeJuan Jones notched a career-high fourth assist on their opening goal versus TFC and Andrew Farrell made his 259th appearance for the franchise, as he needs just two more to tie the all-time club record.
The Black-and-Red are missing Brendan Hines-Ike with a hip injury, Adrien Perez is nursing a foot problem, Russell Canouse has an ankle issue, Nigel Robertha is out with a groin strain, Bill Hamid remains sidelined with a hamstring issue, Donovan Pines is dealing with a foot injury and Edison Flores came on as a second-half substitute against Nashville after previously suffering a hamstring injury.
Ola Kamara scored his 11th goal of the season on Sunday, Ramon Abila made his DC United debut, coming on as a substitute, and Frederic Brillant scored his first goal of the year in the loss and his fifth as a member of the Black-and-Red.
Julian Gressel picked up his fifth assist of the season on their opening goal, as he now has two in his previous two appearances.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Jones, Kessler, Farrell, DeLaGarza; Bunbury, Caldwell, Polster, Buchanan; Bou, Buksa
DC United possible starting lineup:
Kempin; Alfaro, Brillant, Mora; Reyna, Moreno, Gressel, Flores; Paredes, Kamara, Yow
We say: New England Revolution 3-2 DC United
New England have been involved in plenty of tight matches this year, and they usually seem to come out on top, winning 11 of their 13 one-goal games this season, and they have not lost to the Black-and-Red at home since 2012.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for DC United had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.
