Seeking to hold on to a 2-1 advantage from the first leg of their Champions League first-round qualifying tie, Neftchi Baku welcome Dinamo Tbilisi to the Bakcell Arena for Wednesday's second-leg encounter.
The Azerbaijan Premier League winners triumphed in Tbilisi to gain the upper hand in the tie and will be rewarded with a clash against Olympiacos should they produce the goods once again.
Match preview
One week after claiming a memorable friendly victory over Spartak Moscow, Azerbaijani champions Neftchi kept their end-of-season momentum going to triumph by the same scoreline in their first-round meeting with Dinamo Tbilisi.
Namiq Alasgarov put the Oil Workers a goal to the good before Zoran Marusic set up a nervy second 45 with an equaliser before the half-time whistle blew, but Neftchi were bailed out of trouble just before the hour mark as Emin Mahmudov's penalty proved decisive.
Neftchi are certainly no stranger to European tournaments and have been buoyed by their first top-flight title win since 2013, but they have only ever advanced to the group stage in one continental competition - the 2012-13 Europa League.
Ex-Azerbaijan international Samir Abbasov has also witnessed his side claim seven wins from their last 10 encounters in all competitions - as well as six wins from their last seven at home - so Dinamo Tbilisi must lace up their best shooting boots if they are to stand a chance of advancing.
The side from the Georgian first tier also have ground to make up domestically if they are to retain the title they scooped in 2020, and with three defeats from their last four across all tournaments, Kakhaber Tskhadadze's side are not exactly a team in inspired form.
However, Tbilisi can focus all their efforts on the impending Champions League showdown with Erovnuli Liga action not set to resume for another few weeks, and they may welcome a tie away from their headquarters having won three of their last four league games away from home.
The 18-time Georgian champions also kept clean sheets in each of those victorious encounters and have not shared the spoils away from home since August 2020, but they also fell at this stage of Champions League qualifying last term courtesy of a 2-0 defeat to Tirana.
Tskhadadze - once of Manchester City - is still finding his feet at Dinamo somewhat, having only taken over for the second time in May, but he must quickly conjure up a winning formula if his side's continental run is to continue a little while longer.
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Team News
Neftchi manager Abbasov waited until the 86th minute to make a substitution in last week's first-leg victory, but the winning crop from that encounter should all be good to go again on home soil.
Alasgarov marked his 125th appearance for Neftchi with his 33rd goal for the club during their win on July 7, while Cesar Meza Colli will hope to keep his place in the attack ahead of fellow new arrival Khayal Nacafov.
Dinamo reported no fresh injury concerns from last week's defeat either, but it would not be a surprise to see Tskhadadze shuffle the pack in order to take some of the attacking pressure off of Marusic's shoulders.
The Serbian's goal in the first leg saw him reach double figures for the campaign in all competitions, but the two men supporting him from deep in Giorgi Gabedava and Giorgi Kutsia were not all that effective in Georgia.
Barnes Osei could therefore come into consideration for a start in the final third as Tskhadadze retains faith in his three-at-the-back system.
Neftchi Baku possible starting lineup:
Mammadov; Stankovic, Celik, Mbodj; Harramiz, Kane, Mahmudov, Lawal; Meza Colli, Bougrine; Alasgarov
Dinamo Tbilisi possible starting lineup:
Kvaskhvadze, Papava, Gbegnon, Khvadagiani; Sporkslede, Radin, Kardava, Kharabadze; Osei, Kutsia; Marusic
We say: Neftchi Baku 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi (3-2 on aggregate)
Neftchi's remarkable form on familiar territory makes it difficult to back a victory for the Georgian visitors, in spite of their positive showings on the road as of late.
It has been nearly a year since Dinamo Tbilisi drew away from home, but with another close affair in store, we think Neftchi will hold their own to book a challenging second-round battle versus Olympiacos.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Neftchi Baku in this match.
