Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 55.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 20.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Spennymoor Town win it was 0-1 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.