Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.