Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-2 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.