Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brackley Town win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brackley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brackley Town would win this match.