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Nacional
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 23
Mar 12, 2021 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Maritimo

Nacional
1 - 2
Maritimo

Gorre (44')
Bessa (70'), Kal (74'), Gorre (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pinho (58', 65')
Pinho (69'), Costa (90'), Abedzadeh (90+3'), Sassa (90+4')

Preview: Nacional vs. Maritimo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Maritimo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Nacional will be looking to end a four-match losing run on Friday evening, when they host Primeira Liga basement side Maritimo.

The visitors are also stuck in a poor run of form, having lost seven of their last eight league games which has seen them drop to the foot of the Primeira Liga table.


Match preview

Last time out, Nacional fell to a 2-1 away defeat to Pacos de Ferreira, when Luther Singh netted a first-half brace, while Bryan Rochez's injury-time goal was not enough to salvage a point for his side.

That followed another 2-1 loss, as Luis Freire's men were defeated at home to second-placed Braga, with Fransergio and Abel Ruiz giving the visitors an early two-goal lead before Brayan Riascos pulled a goal back for Nacional.

After promotion from the Segunda Liga last season, Os Alvinegros had a strong start to life back in the top flight, but they have since dropped swiftly down the table and towards the bottom three.

As a result of their recent run of losses, Freire's side now sit in 13th spot in the Primeira Liga table, just two points ahead of the relegation zone.

Freire will be desperate to put an end to that losing run on Friday, as that would provide some crucial distance between his team and the top flight's bottom three sides.

However, they take on a Maritimo side who will be hoping to end a poor run of their own, having failed to win any of their last eight games in league action.

The visitors will be adjusting to life without Milton Mendes at the helm on Friday, after the Brazilian manager recently resigned from his job with the side sat at the foot of the division.

Last Sunday, the side from Madeira fell to a 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Moreirense, as a Filipe Soares brace condemned them to a 14th Primeira Liga defeat of the season.

Before that, Os Verde-Rubros put an end to a run of seven consecutive losses in all competitions, when they played out a goalless draw with Portimonense.

While they will be searching for a new permanent manager, Maritimo's main focus will be securing a result on Friday, as they look to escape the relegation zone and avoid the drop to the second tier.

Despite their position at the bottom of the division, Os Verde-Rubros remain just one point adrift of automatic safety, meaning a victory would vastly change their situation in the league, and they will be eyeing up this fixture against a struggling Nacional side as a good opportunity to secure that vital win.

Nacional Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Maritimo Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L


Team News

Nacional will be without midfielder Ruben Micael through suspension, after he picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the defeat to Pacos de Ferreira.

Their line will be led by Brayan Riascos, who has netted 10 goals in all competitions this campaign.

He could be joined in the forward line by Pedro Mendes, who joined on loan from league leaders Sporting Lisbon in the January transfer window.

Maritimo should have a full squad to pick from for this game, with no major injury concerns.

Last time out, Os Verde-Rubros welcomed Rodrigo Pinho back to action, as their top scorer came off the bench after a spell out with an ankle injury.

With their need for a win growing each week, Maritimo could opt for a more positive system in this game, with Pinho joining Diederrick Joel Tagueu in attack.

Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; De Souza, Henrique, Cesar, Vigario; Rochez, Borges, Ramos, Gorre; Riascos, Mendes

Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Winck, Santos, Andrade, Hermes; Alipour, Jean, Bambock, Correa; Tagueu, Pinho


SM words green background

We say: Nacional 1-1 Maritimo

With both teams desperate for a win to end poor runs of form, we see the two sides cancelling each other out on Friday.

The return of Pinho could seriously boost the visitors' chances, but we do not think they have enough to return to winning ways here, instead expecting the sides to split the points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.


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Braga head coach Carlos Carvalhal pictured in December 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon30262287276080
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9Casa Pia3088143043-1332
10SC FarenseFarense3087153944-531
11Rio AveRio Ave3051693238-631
12Gil Vicente3087153748-1131
13BoavistaBoavista3079143556-2130
14Estoril PraiaEstoril3086164552-730
15Estrela Amadora30611133246-1429
16PortimonensePortimonense3077163464-3028
17ChavesChaves3058173062-3223
18Vizela3049172962-3321


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