Uruguayan side Nacional host Group F leaders Argentinos Juniors in their final group stage encounter of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday.
The visitors, who have already qualified for the last 16, have won five of their last six matches in all competitions, while Nacional are unbeaten in each of their previous three games.
Match preview
After claiming just two points from their first four group matches, Nacional seemed destined to be eliminated from the competition. However, a crucial 1-0 victory at home to Universidad Catolica last week has given them a fighting chance of finishing inside the top two.
Brian Ocampo's 29th-minute strike, his first of the season, was enough for the Uruguayans to claim all three points in Montevideo.
Nacional remain at the foot of Group F, but are now just one point behind Catolica in second. With their destiny out of their own hands, a victory on Thursday would only be enough to see them progress into the last 16 if Catolica were to draw with Atletico Nacional.
After topping their group in 2020, Alejandro Capuccio will be disappointed if his side fail to progress to the knockout stages, and a defeat would also see them miss out on a place in the Copa Sudamericana, given to all third-place finishers in the group stage.
Nacional lost 2-0 in their opening Group F match to Argentinos Juniors, who have had a very successful Copa Libertadores campaign so far.
El Bicho have won four of their five group-stage matches, with a slender 1-0 win over Atletico Nacional last week securing their qualification for the last 16 as group winners.
Their form in South America's elite competition has been impressive, however a dreadful start to their domestic campaign has proven costly, with them falling short in the top flight.
Argentinos Juniors claimed 13 points from their final seven Argentine Primeira Division matches, but could only finish seventh in the table, just two points behind fourth-placed Racing Club, which means they have failed to qualify for any South American competition next season.
Gabriel Milito's side are now fully focused on the Copa Libertadores, and they will be looking to conclude the group stage in style with another victory on Thursday.
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Team News
Nacional goalkeeper Sergio Rochet, who has kept clean sheets in the last two Group F matches, is set to start once again with Guillermo Centurion ruled out with coronavirus.
Gonzalo Vega, Thiago Vecino, Emiliano Martinez, Maximiliano Cantera, Joaquin Trasante and Mathias Laborda are also unavailable for selection with COVID-19.
A lack of discipline will cost the Uruguayans heading into this match as Christian Almeida, Camilo Candido and Felipe Carballo will all miss Thursday's clash due to red card suspensions.
In addition, defender Agustin Oliveros is ruled out with an injury, so a back four including Angelo Gabrielli, Nicolas Marichal, Guzman Corujo and Armando Mendez is expected to start once again.
As for Argentinos Juniors, Emanuel Herrera, who scored off the bench against Atletico Nacional last week, could be in line to start up front ahead of either Gabriel Avalos or Javier Cabrera, while striker Gabriel Hauche will sit this game out through suspension.
Milito is unlikely to make too many chances to his starting lineup, with Jonathan Sandoval and Elias Gomez expected to keep their places in the side as wing-backs.
Defender Carlos Quintana, who was sent off in the reverse fixture, is set to start in the back three alongside Miguel Torren and Kevin Mac Allister.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Rochet; Gabrielli, Marichal, Corujo, Mendez; Piriz; Ocampo, Neves, D'Alessandro, Fernandez, Bergessio
Argentinos Juniors possible starting lineup:
Chavez; Mac Allister, Torren, Quintana; Sandoval, J.Gomez, Moyano, E.Gomez; Florentin; Avalos, Herrera
We say: Nacional 0-2 Argentinos Juniors
Nacional need to win on Thursday if they are to have any chance of progressing into the last 16, however they face an Argentinos Juniors side who have conceded just once in their five Group F matches.
The hosts will not be able to field their strongest side due to a coronavirus outbreak at the club and so the visitors should be strong favourites to secure all three points.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentinos Juniors win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentinos Juniors win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
