CF Montreal are looking to hang onto their narrow lead in the MLS' Eastern Conference playoff race when they host the New England Revolution on Wednesday from Saputo Stadium.
Montreal are in the final postseason position heading into this contest, just a point above Atlanta United after falling 2-1 to the Columbus Crew, while the Revs continue to increase their lead atop the Eastern Conference, after beating Orlando City this weekend by the same score.
Match preview
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The playoff picture just got a little more complicated for CF Montreal on Saturday as they were beaten for only the second time in their last eight MLS fixtures.
There is not much time for Wilfried Nancy and his side to dwell on the missed opportunities against Columbus as they begin a three-game homestand versus the top team in the league and a side that have defeated them in their last three regular-season meetings.
Aside from the Revolution, who are safely positioned in first place in the Conference, things could not be any tighter out East, with Montreal only two points behind New York City FC for third, though another loss could drop them on the outside of a playoff position.
An upset in midweek could have a significant impact on their postseason aspirations heading into a critical juncture of the campaign, as they follow up this game on Wednesday by hosting the Five Stripes before welcoming the Philadelphia Union, who are only a point above them in the table.
When this team can start quickly, they have shown to be a tough side to contend with, having lost only once since the start of August when scoring a first-half goal.
With the standings so tight, there is virtually no margin for error as Montreal will need to do a better job of eliminating the dangerous scoring opportunities that they have allowed recently.
They have not given up more than 50% possession to their opponents in their last 10 matches in all competitions, but they have conceded far too many quality efforts, with 22 shots on target fired against them over their previous four MLS games.
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You have to be good to be lucky, and New England had some great moments with a touch of lady luck in their victory over Orlando City on Saturday.
Despite having only one shot on goal, they were able to go in front after only nine minutes, before benefitting from an own-goal by Rodrigo Schlegel to reclaim the lead and then barely holding on thanks in large part to some heroic goalkeeping.
Bruce Arena and his Revs look as determined as ever to stay sharp and continue winning, even though they have already locked up a playoff berth while also holding a 17-point advantage atop the Eastern Conference.
They are averaging 2.28 points per game and need three more wins and a draw to match the all-time MLS regular-season points record of 72, set by Los Angeles FC in 2019, while they remain on course to set a new club record for fewest regular-season losses, suffering only four defeats so far this year, three less than their best ever mark set in 2005.
The closer the game, the better they seem to play with 16 wins in 2021 by a single goal, while they have only suffered two defeats by the same close margin.
Scoring has never been an issue for this team this year, leading the league with 53 strikes after 28 games and a couple more would tie their single-season franchise record of 55.
Altogether, New England have only dropped points in nine matches this season, with six of those setbacks coming on the road, so they will be happy to know that they have already guaranteed themselves at least one home playoff game in 2021.
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Team News
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Romell Quioto scored a late consolation goal for Montreal in their defeat to Columbus this past weekend, putting him just one behind Mason Toye for the team lead.
Djordje Mihailovic has been a key playmaker for them in midfield, currently tied with DC United's Julian Gressel for second in the league in assists with 11, while goalkeeper James Pantemis has only conceded two of the last 15 shots that he has faced at home.
Robert Thorkelsson underwent successful surgery late last month for a sports hernia to his left adductor but is not expected to return to the lineup in the regular season, while Toye has a shoulder strain and Kiki Struna is nursing a calf injury.
Matt Turner helped extend the Revs unbeaten run to five games, saving a 75th-minute penalty from Nani this past weekend, Brandon Bye made his 100th MLS appearance and Adam Buksa scored his 12th goal of the campaign putting him into a tie for the team lead with Gustavo Bou.
Emmanuel Boateng, Edward Kizza and Maciel all sat out of their game on Saturday due to undisclosed injuries, while Matt Polster had a team-high 55 passes to go along with seven recoveries.
Tommy McNamara collected his fourth assist of the year on the opening goal against the Lions, completing 90% of his passes on the day, with seven recoveries and three tackles.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Miller, Camacho, Waterman, Bassong; Lappalainen, Piette, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic, Torres; Quioto
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Farrell, Kessler, DeLaGarza; Polster; Buchanan, Gil, Caldwell; Buksa, Bou
We say: CF Montreal 1-2 New England Revolution
Four of the last five matches played between these teams in Montreal were decided by a single goal, and should that trend continue, you have to fancy the Revs to come out on top as they always seem to have a little extra in the tank to pull out three points.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 34.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
