Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.67%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 24.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
| 24.22% | 24.11% | 51.67% |
| Both teams to score 53.81% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.3% | 47.71% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.1% | 69.9% |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% | 34.01% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.31% | 70.7% |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% | 18.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.36% | 49.64% |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 6.77% 2-1 @ 6.17% 2-0 @ 3.65% 3-1 @ 2.22% 3-2 @ 1.87% 3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.23% Total : 24.22% | 1-1 @ 11.43% 0-0 @ 6.28% 2-2 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.1% | 0-1 @ 10.6% 1-2 @ 9.67% 0-2 @ 8.96% 1-3 @ 5.45% 0-3 @ 5.05% 2-3 @ 2.94% 1-4 @ 2.3% 0-4 @ 2.13% 2-4 @ 1.24% Other @ 3.33% Total : 51.66% |